On this episode, we begin with an update on Ukraine’s counteroffensive and its slow but steady progress to take back territory from Russia. We then discuss the Niger coup, delving into what happened, the impact on US foreign policy, and the expansion of Wagner and Russian influence in Africa. Finally, we look at Israel’s democratic crisis with recent passing of legislation that limits judicial oversight of government power. We also consider the possibility of the U.S. brokering a peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
But first, has the Earth been visited by aliens? And if so, why is the US the only country talking about it?
Topics Discussed in this Episode
Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode
Congressional Hearing on UFOs: ‘Non-human’ biologics, Murder, and Interdimensional travel, oh my!
Russia-Ukraine War: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Breakthrough?
Niger coup and Russia’s growing influence in Africa
Israel in Crisis and Saudi-US Dealmaking
Follow Us
On this episode, we begin with an update on Ukraine’s counteroffensive and its slow but steady progress to take back territory from Russia. We then discuss the Niger coup, delving into what happened, the impact on US foreign policy, and the expansion of Wagner and Russian influence in Africa. Finally, we look at Israel’s democratic crisis with recent passing of legislation that limits judicial oversight of government power. We also consider the possibility of the U.S. brokering a peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
But first, has the Earth been visited by aliens? And if so, why is the US the only country talking about it?
Topics Discussed in this Episode
Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode
Congressional Hearing on UFOs: ‘Non-human’ biologics, Murder, and Interdimensional travel, oh my!
Russia-Ukraine War: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Breakthrough?
Niger coup and Russia’s growing influence in Africa
Israel in Crisis and Saudi-US Dealmaking
Follow Us
Anita Kellogg: [00:00:00] Welcome to Kellogg's Global Politics, a podcast on current events in US foreign policy and international affairs. My name is Dr. Anita Kellogg, an international relations scholar specializing in the relationship between economics and national security. I'm here with my cohost, Ryan Kellogg, an expert in energy investment and policy.
Ryan Kellogg: Thanks. I'm glad to be back. So this is episode 37 and we're recording this on July [00:00:30] 29th, 2023.
Anita Kellogg: On this episode, we begin with an update on Ukraine's counter offensive, and its slow but steady progress to take back territory from Russia. We then discussed the Nigel coup delving into what happened, the impact on US foreign policy, and the expansion of Wagner and Russian influence in Africa.
Finally, we look at Israel's democratic crisis with the recent passing of legislation that limits judicial oversight of government power. We also consider the possibility of us brokering a [00:01:00] peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. But first, has the earth been visited by aliens? And if so, why is the US the only country talking about it?
So I want to say I learned something very interesting this week, and it was that Ryan believes there's a possibility that Earth has been visited by Alien. Yeah. I
Ryan Kellogg: don't know why you're not taking this more [00:01:30] seriously. I mean, we just had a congressional subcommittee oversight that held a full scale hearing with three very credible witnesses, one of which made.
Pretty extraordinary allegations, but just the fact that it's being heard in this forum at this level and all the steps that it would've taken in order to get to that level. I mean, there was a lot of enabling legislation before [00:02:00] this to make the whole unidentified aerial phenomenon credible to investigate as a whistleblower.
So I'm like, what more do you need? I mean, this is, this is some crackpot on YouTube. No. Talking about it. This is a high level GSS 15 military intelligence officer that was involved in the program for several years, making these pretty serious allegations in front of Congress.
Anita Kellogg: So, I agree [00:02:30] that he's the most credible witness that has ever spoken about this topic.
I do believe
Ryan Kellogg: in the most credible forum that's ever been talked about. Yeah. This is not like, again, it's not some crank on Infowars or something. Right. I mean this is, this is as legit as it gets. But I have several
Anita Kellogg: counterpoints when all of this is based on him interviewing other people. He has not ever seen any of this himself.
Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, absolutely. But I mean, he's interviewed 40 [00:03:00] witnesses and he's hand over all of those names and testimony to Congress for private investigation.
Anita Kellogg: But we still don't have direct testimony of anyone who's seen this technology or this the supposed bodies. It's just people saying, and we don't know how credible those people are.
Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. 40 people. That's a lot.
Anita Kellogg: Well, I mean, there's like way more than, and not 40
Ryan Kellogg: randos, these are people all within military intelligence with direct involvement in the program. But I mean, I think the, the important thing is that. He made, I mean, [00:03:30] everybody's been quoting Carl Sagan this week as like extraordinary claims.
Sure. Require extraordinary evidence and he's made very extraordinary claims, which I think I want to detail just all the claims. Okay. That were made. The biggest thing, and this is, this is David Gru that we're talking about. So he's the former military intelligence officer that was part of the Navy's u a p task force.
Now, one of the things that's really confusing and maybe has some insights [00:04:00] into this, given that you are a D O D employee, I'm sure I do, but there are so many, I feel like each branch probably has, its had its own program at some point, and that this program has now been superseded by one that has more overarching functions.
But anyway, it's, that's not a Sprite. It's, yeah. So it's that normal bureaucracy thing. But his key claim was the US government has been conducting a multi-decade program to recover. And reverse engineer crashed alien spacecraft. Mm-hmm. I wasn't [00:04:30] framed that way there. The, the language being used was in possession of a U a P and non-human.
Intelligence. Mm-hmm. So NHI was like the government. Mm-hmm. Because nobody wants to use the sensationalized language. So he's claimed, yeah. That basically the US has had for many decades recovered and reverse engineer this program. There's, I think the thing that fit more with the oversight and the more responsible committee [00:05:00] members, I think really focused on, on their point of function.
One of which was AOC. I mean, that was the other thing that was interesting about this was it was a very bipartisan, I would say, only China and UFOs. This is the only thing, two topics that Congress can muster real bipartisanship around. But the other claim they made was there was substantial evidence of white collar crime misappropriations of funds, essentially to fund this black op [00:05:30] program.
Mm-hmm. That. Military contractors were overcharging within the official budget, and then those excess funds were being funneled into these, into these black ops. I think some of the other more sensational items, yeah, I mean it was the recovery of non-human biological matter. So basically say in alien bodies were also recovered.
He knew the locations of where these crafts were being held. This is all stuff that he said I'm providing [00:06:00] to, I guess, congress members that have sufficient clearance to review this highly classified material behind closed doors. And then, yeah, I think it was, the other part was the, the questions around had anybody been harmed, yes, from this technology, but either from the non-human technology itself or from the government covering it up.
And he basically implied that yes, on both counts. So it was huge, huge accusations, all of this. So I think [00:06:30] that's, but to your point, no
Anita Kellogg: extraordinary evidence for sure. Yeah. And there are just some logical problems I have like aliens have visited but not made any sort of official contact. Or why wouldn't they want their bodies back or why wouldn't they just conquer an inferior civilization or just take our resources.
Those are just some of my counterpoints Plus why is the US the only country talking about it? Because [00:07:00] there's this, I think he did refer to this idea that other nations,
Ryan Kellogg: yeah, other, but why he mentioned other allied countries. He mentioned almost like a Cold War environment. Like
Anita Kellogg: why is the US the only one that always seems to have these whistleblowers or people talking about it?
You don't hear like the German government hearing, having hearings. And then another reason, how would it not have gotten out? Why? Like, yeah. Yeah. Why wouldn't someone like Donald Trump just tell people he would've been fascinated by it. Well, [00:07:30] yeah,
Ryan Kellogg: and that was the, that was the point that Ross Ette made time.
I think he had a
Anita Kellogg: really good article. I don't always like him, but
Ryan Kellogg: yeah, I, no, all those are, are totally valid points. The idea of a manned craft coming from advanced civilization alone is, yeah, you would expect everything to be probes and robots and, and ai. Yeah. I don't get the alien
Anita Kellogg: bodies though, like, yeah, I don't,
Ryan Kellogg: yeah, that far.
That makes, I don't get it out argument. But the other part, I mean, this was so weird in this [00:08:00] testimony too, and I don't completely follow the logic around it, just because I don't understand the physics. I mean, I understand like at the particle level, the idea of quantum mechanics and being able, like particles can travel vast distances, like light years and somehow be connected.
So this idea of interdimensional reality that was actually talked about in the testimony. Because we don't, of how they would travel like vast distances and it, it gros basically got into and [00:08:30] it's, you know, I think it is like a BA in Physics, so it's not like I really doubt that he understands fully mm-hmm.
What even the theory is behind it. But yeah, the idea that they're traveling through, I guess, Time, space time. Mm-hmm. And that these crafts are appearing out of this additional dimension in our three D space. Mm-hmm. And that's how they're traveling the fast distances,
Anita Kellogg: because we don't have any other logical explanation.
We don't. Right. We've never come up with one where you could travel faster than the [00:09:00] speed of light. Right. Well,
Ryan Kellogg: yeah. I mean, Einstein's theory says that we can't. Right.
Anita Kellogg: And we've never fundamentally been able to disprove that. Right. Exactly. That's been a, and then all these civilizations, I mean, we've
Ryan Kellogg: proven, we've proven time dilation, which is a key part of this theory, that as you travel faster and faster towards the speed of light, the time actually slows down.
We've been able to actually prove that, which still blows my mind. Mm-hmm. That that's a thing. A time. Mm-hmm. Yeah. Is this malleable thing that slows down? Yeah. If you're traveling fast enough.
Anita Kellogg: Yeah. There's too many lot. [00:09:30] And seriously why? Just our allies have been visited by aliens. Like, well that
Ryan Kellogg: was, yeah, I saw Ian, Ian Bremmer tweeted out.
This is more around where UFOs have been spotted. And it was like his, his little snarky comment was like, well, clearly the aliens only speak English because it was just in the UK. Because it's not just us. It is, UK has some obsessive around UFOs too, but it was almost exclusively the United States, Canada, and the UK.
It didn't even include, I think [00:10:00] Australia. It's not every English speaking country. So yeah, I, I totally agree, but I think it, what's unique is yeah, the credibility. Of the, the witnesses, the enabling legislation, the fact that Congress is taking it seriously. There's of course a lot of, and
Anita Kellogg: even if it's a, well, that's not proof of anything, that Congress is taking it seriously is not proof that aliens exist.
It's just, yeah,
Ryan Kellogg: it may just be a popular vote
Anita Kellogg: of it's possible interest in, yeah. Yeah.
Ryan Kellogg: Part of the, that's entirely possible, even if [00:10:30] it is an elaborate psyop or it's this way just for the military to juice its funding by coming up with a new threat. So all that, that's interesting. I mean, yes,
Anita Kellogg: I like that. It is like, so why does the military seem to, and government seem to want to make us believe, right?
Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. I mean, why the, I mean the d o d, I mean, he went through the official channels, d o D approved the not, that's not a commitment that any of it's true, but just prove, but those
Anita Kellogg: officials, those officials [00:11:00] have been made by Congress
Ryan Kellogg: recently around the specific issue. Yeah.
Anita Kellogg: Right. So, and we don't know how credible the actual eyewitness testimony is.
Ryan Kellogg: No, we don't. We don't. But they, that's why it would be interesting to see will we actually see follow up? Mm-hmm. Or is this one of those summertime lull where congress like has time and they were clearly enthused to do it. I don't think it's strictly for, I mean, I think there's personal interest from the people on the committee.
Anita Kellogg: Yeah. Most [00:11:30] Americans are personally interested
Ryan Kellogg: and there's definitely weird unexplained thing. I mean, the pilots were the ones that have actual visual evidence. Yeah.
Anita Kellogg: We've all seen that. They all, we've all seen those videos. Yeah. I mean, all the experts say there's not proof that Right. No. Not remotely proof. No.
Ryan Kellogg: And that's, that's the idea of having a more structured system to capture and document and.
You know, understand this. I mean, and it was, [00:12:00] the whole thing was responsibly framed around national security. Because obviously if there is the possibility of the existence of this technology, you know, from foreign adversaries, which seems very low, it would represent a severe threat. I mean, that was the whole questioning around, oh, could you shoot down this object which can accelerate and stop on a dime at, at extraordinary ability?
And, and the answer was no. No, we couldn't,
Anita Kellogg: for the reasons I stated, do [00:12:30] not believe that we've been visited.
Ryan Kellogg: Well, no. No. And I'm not, I'm not committing to that. But I think it's,
Anita Kellogg: I think it's worth, Hey, you're committed to like drones or something like that. You are committed. I mean, I think it's possible,
Ryan Kellogg: right?
Yeah. What's wrong with saying it's possible we don't have evidence either way, but now we have. So somebody highly credible and then supposedly 40 other people high up within the intelligence. The only people that would have access we to this information or data
Anita Kellogg: told. We don't know how credible those witnesses are.[00:13:00]
When you say We don’t know. Yeah, it's possible. I mean that's kind of a cop out Because you can say anything's possible. Sure.
Ryan Kellogg: But I don't think it's a, I don't think it's a cop out. I mean, I think you're talking about, so it's the credibility of the individuals. It, why would they, or why would they do this?
Because the previous people that have come out have been proven liars. They only have nearly the background. Right. That these individuals have. Right. And what would be the motivation on fabrication [00:13:30] or even to that point, what would be the motivation for an entire psyop if this guy's being fed this information, what's the motivation behind that?
So even if it, none of this involves non-human intelligence, what's the underlying in terms of like how the government works? Yeah. What's going on there? See, interesting. Either
Anita Kellogg: way. Well, yeah, sure. But it's like, I can say, well, it possible that aliens exist. Right. But no, I will
Ryan Kellogg: say I don't think there's any doubt that they exist in this universe.
I mean, I [00:14:00] think that's, there is some almost beyond question.
Anita Kellogg: I'm reading it. I mean, we assume, but then at the same time it's like, why haven't we seen any evidence of life at all?
Ryan Kellogg: We haven't, we haven't even, we can't even confirm that on Mars yet. I mean, we, we don't have the technology to be able to look for life,
Anita Kellogg: but I wouldn't say they definitely, I think it's a possibility that they exist.
Right. I think, I mean, technically a lot of things are possible, so [00:14:30] if aliens exist, technically it's possible that they have visited Earth, but it is highly, highly, highly unlikely. I feel that's where we're different. I feel like you think that, I feel like you say like you wouldn't be surprised to find out.
Ryan Kellogg: I mean, I think everybody would be surprised. I mean, that would be a big shock.
Anita Kellogg: So distinguished exactly. Where you fall on this. Yeah. I don't
Ryan Kellogg: know. Well, part of it is this fun. I mean, that's why a lot of people are engage in it [00:15:00] and Yeah. If you're a science fiction fan, of course you, you imagine, what would it be like when, if humans ever contacted a
Anita Kellogg: intelligence fiction?
I read a lot of science fiction. Fiction or found evidence of it and they usually take over.
Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah. None of it's good. I mean, even Stephen Hawking was famous for that. Yeah. Like if aliens this would, this is probably a big mistake that we're broadcasting our presence Yeah. Within the galaxy. Yeah.
That's a big mistake. Yeah. Because we do assume the whole, the fascist theory of any civilization [00:15:30] capable of uniting. It's either going to be the, the Star Trek, the nice version, or great vision. They're going to give us cool technology, we'll solve all our problems. Mm-hmm. Saw people hoping they would solve climate change, or they're the Nazi type that'll just come and, and wipe us out.
Which I, I don't even understand the motivation behind If Earthlike planets and material are so readily available, what's the motivation to that? Spite unique
Anita Kellogg: materials, or what unique
Ryan Kellogg: materials of [00:16:00] the universe does the Earth have
Anita Kellogg: over? Or they like, conquer people. Like they don't wipe everyone out. Oh, that was another thing.
If, if alien, like non-human, biological material has been recovered, why isn't it led to like diseases and things like that?
Ryan Kellogg: Well, Because it was contained in a closed environment or we don't know that. I don't know why, but it's, or they, yeah. I mean, they could have contained it. Or if people did get disease, they, I don't know.[00:16:30]
Killed him and contained it. I mean, I don't
Anita Kellogg: know. I mean, it would seem like I would. I agree. Biologic thing, the
Ryan Kellogg: biologic thing is a gigantic, that's what made this so extraordinary here. I'm like, really? Bodies? It was BA and if you go back to his, Because he, so he was employed with the government mm-hmm.
Through April. Mm-hmm. Then he quit his job as part of this whistle blowing. Mm-hmm. And his, I think the first thing he peter in was from dispatch mm-hmm. Article, which was headed up by the same [00:17:00] reporters at the New York Times. Mm-hmm. That did, I think the U F O article back in 2017. But then he was interviewed in Newsmax and the NEWSMAX one, which is the new program that, like Chris Cuomo.
So it's a new channel. They're trying to get views. They're the only ones that are willing to Yeah. Take the, take the chance on This also speaks to credibility, but his in, in, yeah, maybe. But what he says in there, that's when it begin to, because then it's like, He's mentioning Roswell and just all the classic sort of stuff, [00:17:30] and that's when you go, oh my God, is this, he's tying it back to like the 1930s.
Its far, it's this multi-decade thing. Mm-hmm. And then the fact that, oh, is Roswell credible? Mm-hmm. I'm like, okay, well,
Anita Kellogg: I mean I if Roswell's,
Ryan Kellogg: because that's the whole recovery, alien bodies and all that.
Anita Kellogg: Yeah. I mean, I'm just, if there is biological stuff, I just feel like they would've, they would inadvertently wipe out humans Because we'd be exposed to, I, I don't [00:18:00] necessarily think that.
Why? I mean, that's what we did. Yeah. But that was a huge other
Ryan Kellogg: continents. Huge. Yeah. But that also required massive scale like exposure or a lot more exposure than we would've gotten from, I don't know, two bodies. Mm-hmm. And at least we knew germ theory. I mean, the Native Americans didn't know germ theory.
We would've known germ theory back in the forties and been able to contain it even if it did kill people immediately. Mm-hmm. So I don't, I don't, I don't buy that [00:18:30] M theory, whole biologic.
Anita Kellogg: They covid crazy. Still spread. I mean, I don't know. We didn't stop the spread of covid. Yeah.
Ryan Kellogg: But if this is super secret Ops and they're going to know, and think they're going to think about this in the forties, what diseases, that's definitely something they would've thought about.
And we would get way off on that because we would get hung up on this.
Anita Kellogg: Well, as you said, it's a fun thing to discuss, although I think you believe it more credibly than I do.
Ryan Kellogg: I do. I do find it just because of [00:19:00] this isn't a congressional testimony and mm-hmm. It's high level military intelligence. Mm-hmm.
Okay. Analyst doing the testimony. Yeah, sure. Okay.
Anita Kellogg: I need extraordinary evidence. It's
Ryan Kellogg: definitely not true. No, I don't, I don't, I do not disagree with that. So that's why it'd be interesting to see if anything at all comes from this. Yeah. They promise more, more hearings, more follow ups. Mm-hmm. All the quiz do stuff. Yeah. [00:19:30] Yeah.
Anita Kellogg: Okay. So on to the Ukraine counter offensive and where we stand with that.
So,
Ryan Kellogg: yeah, over the past couple of weeks we talked last about the state of the counter offensive and the fact that it was being bogged down and not making a lot of progress. And there's certainly been a lot of articles, I think prematurely saying that this was a, has already been a failure and just what the, the [00:20:00] consequences of that were and, and who's to blame for it.
That being said, I'd say over the last week there has been more encouraging news because you have seen, and the Pentagon confirmed last Wednesday, the main thrust, Because we talked about before, that the. NATO trained brigades. So there's nine NATO trained brigades equipped with the western armor. So the, the Bradleys, the leopard tanks, is now being pulled into the [00:20:30] fray.
Mm-hmm. So the idea is that they've spent this time probing Russian weaknesses, making very slow and steady progress. And I think that the key mark of the counter offensive at this stage is they've reached the, the first group of barriers. There was an interesting video that I think Russian military bloggers showed, and it, it, it was probably a unmanned.
Russian or Ukrainian tank, Russian made, that was just shown on its own going across the [00:21:00] open fields. Because we talked about how it's very easily defendable area for the Russians because this big open fields. Mm-hmm. And they reach in like the first trench. Mm-hmm. And it just shows it running up against the trench and attempting to go over it, but then failing.
And then behind that trend you have all the dragon teeth, all these white sort of concrete structures. So it seems like they're, they're getting ready to make a main push where they're going to encounter the main defensive line of the Russians with the [00:21:30] goal, according to the, the Pentagon of advancing south.
Towards the, the City of Talk Mock, which is the first major city, which an Institute of Wars provided a nice group of maps as they have throughout the whole conflict, showing like the current Russian structures and defensive lines and talk. Mook is completely surrounded, it's encircled by Russian defensive lines, so this is seen as like the [00:22:00] key village to take before they can have a fairly clear path to Maal and the Sea of Aziz.
Now, of course, they, they've reached that they've accomplished their objective of getting within striking distance of Crimea. So this is really seen and they, the, the Pentagon was saying this will be likely played out within the next month.
Anita Kellogg: Yeah, so definitely something to pay attention to. You know, what I find interesting that they've also talked about in the news recently is the lack of equipment needed for mind glaring.
Mm-hmm. [00:22:30] And it goes back to this idea that there's so much focus on the high tech weapons that sometimes the very sort of low tech sort of stuff is something that they don't have. Right. So mind clearing devices, I mean, would not be super high tech or anything like that. And that they don't have enough of those shows some of the problems with needing stuff that meets the realities of the ground beyond just having these new high tech
Ryan Kellogg: weapons.
Yeah. And no, definitely [00:23:00] that and, and just their artillery. Mm-hmm. I mean, having the sufficient artillery is definitely not a tech theme at all. And, and to that point, Michael Kaufman and Fran Stefan Gaty, so two military analysts that have been real prominent during the duration of the war, wrote in the Economist this week.
On all these challenges to Ukraine's Counter offensive and where they focused is just, yeah. Their inability to scale up combined arms assaults, which by that they [00:23:30] mean to be able to just synchronize all these different forces and units not taking into account even the Air Force. Mm-hmm. Because they have very limited Air Force, but just the ground forces.
Mm-hmm. Alone. And it's despite the several months of training that they've had, that's just to know how to operate the equipment. Mm-hmm. That's not how to work together as a team. Mm-hmm. And that's something that they just don't have experience in. And what they conclude is that you have to let Ukraine fight the war that it knows how.
And the [00:24:00] only success that it, it had like last fall around Kherson was this war of attrition. Mm-hmm. Which is a classic way of just. Out, maybe are doing in in back mood. Because that's the one area they've really had a lot of success in is and look pretty close to retaking back mood is just the brutal war of attrition of who, who wants it more with the idea that the west has to be the production capacity to outlast [00:24:30] Russians,
Anita Kellogg: but we have to increase our production capacity and we have not, not done, which has
Ryan Kellogg: happen on the
Anita Kellogg: artillery side.
Not other, well, we haven't really done it on the artillery side. Everything I've read that says we haven't,
Ryan Kellogg: well yeah, I mean they have, they've definitely are ramping up, but maybe it's not the timeframe we're in the capacity that's needed. But I know they've, they've pushed forward with that, with the Defense Production Act.
Anita Kellogg: I have to look, just what I've read, there wasn't any major gain. Yeah. It's
Ryan Kellogg: still not enough for sure. But I, I think that's the one [00:25:00] area where they are actually trying to, I
Anita Kellogg: mean that's why we were giving them cluster munitions is because we didn't have
Ryan Kellogg: enough Yeah. To bridge the gap until we get to that, that higher production capacity.
Yeah. Yeah.
Anita Kellogg: So hopefully they'll continue to make progress. But I think, like I said, it shows that some of the equipment that they really need that's not high tech is not, mm-hmm. Is not getting to them. And it's definitely a struggle. So also in the news this week is that [00:25:30] Russia backed out of its Black Sea Grain Initiative, which is a deal that was brokered by the United Nations in Turkey that allowed from the safe export of grain from Ukraine.
Ukraine is a major supplier globally of grain. It's been in effect since July of 2022. And it's helped to reduce global food prices and prevented some of that food insecurity that we've covered in the show too, that everyone was worried about in Africa. Possibly they ended [00:26:00] this deal now because of Ukraine's new attack on the Kirsch Bridge, which links to Crimea, but also maybe caused by the desire to get sanction relief on global banking payments and sort of trying to get a new negotiation and upset by the loss of an ammonia pipeline.
So basically, it's not only ended this deal, but is actually launched strikes targeting the grain silos on the port area of Odessa [00:26:30] where the grain exports are sent. And then as you might expect, wheat prices responded by rising sharply. The price of wheat is at its highest level in 14 years, and basically the biggest impact is on food insecurity around the world.
There's many countries that are already food insecure. This could trigger a lot more malnutrition, meeting the needs of Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. But I think particularly there's been a lot of [00:27:00] focus on Africa. One thing that I, I was listening to was the kind of irony that as well speak about, Russia has been holding this African conference and at the same time that they made this deal to, that's going to hurt food consumption, food being exported to Africa.
And so African leaders have certainly petitioned Russia to reinstate this deal. But anyway, I thought that was, that was pretty [00:27:30] ironic. Although, on the other hand, I think the way that Russia influences Africa through more like. Military ties with autocratic elites is not going to be affected by whether the grain prices are
Ryan Kellogg: higher or not.
Right. And they, I mean, Putin did make a big deal of promising free grain for Russian allies. Mm-hmm. So for, for like Molly, which recently as we'll talk about, had a coup, I think a couple years ago [00:28:00] and is now strongly backed by Wagner and votes like in the UN for Russia. Mm-hmm. They said, Hey, we'll cover you on the grain Because we're that benevolent and mm-hmm.
And, and great. So, so yeah, they're trying to have their, their cake and eat it too. Not to be framed as allies, but you know, as we'll see, they're overall not very popular in Africa.
Anita Kellogg: Yeah, but that doesn't matter because that's not
Ryan Kellogg: their, because they're, they're catering towards the autocratic elites. Yeah.
Yeah. So of course they're not [00:28:30] popular. Doesn't matter. Right. It doesn't
Anita Kellogg: for what the average person, I mean, average person may not like their autocratic elites. I'm sure they probably don't. Yeah. So that in a sense, inherently they wouldn't like Russia. Right. Yeah. But that's not what Russian influence like the US trying to compete on, you know, influence
Ryan Kellogg: hearts and minds more on that.
Mm-hmm.
Anita Kellogg: Yeah. But Russia, that's not the game they're playing. Mm-hmm. And their game is
Ryan Kellogg: just legit. I mean, you know Yeah. Legit strategy anyway. Yeah.
Anita Kellogg: So, and I think they [00:29:00] managed to have a substantial influence in that region through their strategy. Mm-hmm. And they definitely can't be counted out. And it's kind of interesting to me, right?
Because the US and China are engaged in economic projects and all this, and Russia just is using its hard military power to have its influence in Africa. And because of its economy not being that strong, that how they've had to leverage, I mean, their whole claim to being a superpower is just based on [00:29:30] military hard, military power.
So kind of getting into some of this, that would begin with the recent coup in Niger that happened this week.
Ryan Kellogg: Yep. So on January 20th, a group of soldiers led by the commander of Niger's presidential guard. So General Omar, uh, CNI launched a coup and overthrew the democratically elected Muhammad Bazoum.
And the coup was [00:30:00] reportedly motivated by anger over the government's handling of the country's security situation. And about sign of corruption and, and mismanagement within the country. But taking a step back, so Niger is in West Africa. It's a, has a population of 26 million and it's extremely poor. So it's actually the world's third poorest country.
And since gaining its independence from France in 1960, it's actually, this is its [00:30:30] fifth military coup. So it's only had a democratically elected government. Under Bazoum who was elected in 2021, and I think real similar to Sudan and its civilian government at the time, a lot of the trouble began when he began to try to make reforms to the military itself.
So Bazoum had targeted, pushed out the Army chief of staff and was forcing other top generals into [00:31:00] retirement. So this seemed to be the, the main impetus mm-hmm. For pushing for the, the military coup. That being said, I think. The reason it hasn't met much public resistance is just the expectations were very high following the election.
And then because of Covid and the Russia, Ukraine war and impact of inflation and food scarcity, that Bazoum hasn't been very popular. Mm-hmm. You know, with the people. [00:31:30] So it, it's, it's probably a little over 50 50 in terms of, of the split. There wasn't a lot of public protests. What public protests there was in the Capitol was quickly suppressed by security forces within the country
Anita Kellogg: violently suppressed.
So, I mean Right. You'd really be surprised there wasn't large
Ryan Kellogg: protests. Right. That being said, so Niger has actually been a, a critical ally for both the US and the French around the battle in that region [00:32:00] against Islamic extremist groups, for instance. I mean, Al-Qaeda has factions within there, and then Baku Harem within Nigeria.
So this is really seen as a base of operations for the US in French military, which. Each have over a thousand troops within the country currently. So it's a real question on whether this will still be a, a available hub for suppressing these extremist groups, because it really has, the [00:32:30] whole Sahel region has grown to be one of the deadliest regions for extremism with 1800 attacks in the first half of 2023 and over nearly 5,000 deaths.
That being said, also for France, Nigel represents. A source of raw material. So they have, one of the few natural resources that they do have are uranium mines. So France actually needs about 15% of its fuel for its nuclear plants comes from, from [00:33:00] Niger. So yeah, there's just, I think there's a lot of concern, especially around the francophone.
So the former French colonies within West Africa, one by one, the democracies there have been collapsing over the past couple of years, and the reason the French troops are in Niger is because Molly had the, the coup. Mm-hmm. A couple years ago. Mm-hmm. So they moved their base from there to Niger and what you've seen is that, like with Molly, they [00:33:30] expelled the UN peacekeepers and have built closer ties to the Wagner group as a result.
So there is concern that in fact the new leaders, so General Omar actually faulted the civilian government for not joining with the military juntas and both Molly and Burkina Faso when they were taken over. So you can see what his path is. He wants to be more in that alliance and tied closer to Russia.
Anita Kellogg: Yeah, so everyone definitely [00:34:00] expects for Wagner to have a similar role as they do in Mali, not only in protecting the autocratic government, but also being accused of a lot of human atrocities, which is not that surprising. So it's considered also a victory for Wagner and through Wagner Russia. Kind of a disturbing trend.
So going back a little bit to what I brought up before Russia hosted this week, its second Russia, Africa Summit on July 27th with [00:34:30] 17 nations in attendance, a large drop from the 43 that attended in 2019. So that's a really significant mm-hmm. I think thing to point out, right, is that yes, Russia has this influence and in some ways growing influence with these coups, but it's also rather limited.
It doesn't have like popular support and I, I mean like in general in Africa, not just people, but its influence is still a [00:35:00] little limited. I mean important, but a little bit limited. Yeah. Yep. In general African countries, we've also talked about this a lot before, have been pragmatic around the Ukraine war votes.
So 19 backed Ukraine, two of them outright backed Russia, and the remaining 33 have abstained, and we talked a lot about how they're just following their own interests of their countries. Basically, Russia's appeal is to non-democratic elites with the goal of influencing [00:35:30] local governments to obtain business deals and access natural resources, strategic locations, and trade quarter.
So one thing that we focus a lot on is Wagner's military capabilities, but they're also this big transnational business organization and with a lot of lucrative deals in these African countries where they have influence. So they provide security, but they also make deals in order to access national resources and [00:36:00] also just do a lot of business.
They also are known for their weapon sales. But as I said, also Russia security to autocrats. An interesting thing that I didn't really know about is how they also are involved in social media campaigns to target anti-colonial segment. So I hadn't really thought of Wagner itself being involved, but I think so much we narrowly focus on weapons and military and not these other operations that are [00:36:30] just as critical but are non-violent.
Ryan Kellogg: And yeah, I remember that. I mean it was Pergo in that headed up the group and 2018 that I think was cited in the Mueller report that did the disinformation campaign targeting US election. So he has a history personally. Yeah. Of running these PSYOP campaigns. So yeah, this is like bread and butter. Yeah, this is just part of their regular offerings.
Anita Kellogg: So I just associated that with Russia, not Wagner it specifically. Oh
Ryan Kellogg: yeah, yeah. Proin [00:37:00] specifically. It wasn't Wagner, but yeah, it was one of his other companies that he brought in. Mm-hmm. Yeah,
Anita Kellogg: so another aspect of this, certainly Wagner's activities are unaffected by the recent mutiny version in Russia.
So that seems kind of unsurprising a lot when there was this idea that Russia was going to dismantle Wagner. There was a lot of talk about how it's going to do that and maintain its [00:37:30] influence in Africa, where Wagner remains such a crucial operation to it. So I think it's very unsurprising that nothing has changed with African operations.
Erosion himself. It's been just this huge question of what he's doing and is there any penalties for what he did. But he did appear for the very first time in St. Petersburg at this Russia, Africa summit meeting with the ambassador from the Central Africa Republic. So some other interesting [00:38:00] details.
They're thought to have 5,000 troops across the continent and operate in a member business entities and mining alone brings in 250 million between 2018 and 2021. So yeah, it's kind of crucial to Russian interest and, and maybe that's why provision is not being faced with the sort of penalties. I mean, maybe that's why he's alive.
A lot of people didn't think he would live this long, [00:38:30] so
Ryan Kellogg: No, and there'd clearly be, yeah, very limited consequences for it. I mean, I think they're even. Yeah, I mean it seems like Wagner's fully still operational. They have moved, Because I think we talked about last time they had, none of the troops have been relocated to Belarus.
I think you've, you've had a number there, but I think there's talk about pulling them back into the Ukrainian conflict as well. So there seemed to be like zero consequences for, [00:39:00] for Zen.
Anita Kellogg: I think that would be surprising to me though, if they pulled them back into the Ukrainian conflict because it seems like where everything kind of went wrong, like as long as they have their arms dealing activities and specifically targeting Africa, that that's really where Russia benefits the most.
And I don't know that it seems like it was the involvement in the Ukraine war that sort of sparked this rebellion in the first place and why you would necessarily want to continue to use mercenaries in that [00:39:30] situation.
Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, I don't know. I mean, I don't think it's, it's clear like how many. Took the deal mm-hmm.
Where they became part of the regular Russian military and how many are now in Belarus? Mm-hmm. Or, or went to Syria. Mm-hmm. Or the Central African Republic or Mali. Mm-hmm. Staying with that, that expat date. Well, maybe they
Anita Kellogg: didn't have to do anything. Maybe not, maybe they didn't have to leave
Ryan Kellogg: Russia. But I think that to the point, I mean, it, it is, yeah.
Because Russia has very limited resources to [00:40:00] influence African leaders. Wagner really is like a force multiplier for, I, I thought the council of foreign relations report was really good because, Wagner's classified as a private military contractor really limits the cost of deploying. Because you don't have all the, the additional costs associated with deploying regular military units.
And then the Kremlin has all this plausible deniability. Mm-hmm. But they still can make full use of all the Russian military [00:40:30] infrastructure. Mm-hmm. At the same time. So it's just this really cheap and cheerful way for Putin to carry out his foreign policy objectives. Mm-hmm. And actually compete with China and the US who spend in Europe, who spend way more.
Mm-hmm. And in terms of influencing, now mind you, these are, and their goal is strictly focused on natural resources. Mm-hmm. These countries are a teeny tiny part of like the overall African economy. Right. Sorry. Because the [00:41:00] African economy is Nigeria, South Africa. Mm-hmm. Which Russia does have mm-hmm.
Influence from the Soviet Union days and Kenya. So these already the leftover. Very dysfunctional parts of the continent, but nevertheless, for spinning hardly anything and having it only 5,000 troops, they have an enormous influence. Mm-hmm. Over vast territories and natural resources. Mm-hmm.
Anita Kellogg: Yeah. Also, I was just recalling their involvement in Libya and part of the [00:41:30] reason why the Libyan sort of, I don't know if it's civil war, but why they haven't been able to have a government is because of Wagner's involvement with the most autocratic warlord.
Mm-hmm. And so that's been perpetuating conflict, so they also create a lot of chaos. Mm-hmm. I know their arms dealing was, has been important to providing Russia with weapons. So I don't know how much they're still getting, but that was important and much has been noted that they approached China, but they also approached Turkey and [00:42:00] other countries trying to get more weapons sent to Russia to fight in the war.
Right, right. So, I mean, it's still, it's very interesting. Based on the fact that there was this big rebellion. No one who's ever opposed Putin in any way has survived. And so, I mean, it's still fascinating the kind of power that corrosion has in that he seems to be operating sort of in a normal capacity.
Right. Yeah. I mean it's pretty shocking and, [00:42:30] and speaks to the power that he still has.
Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, it's a little baffling and it, I mean, it does make Putin look weak. Mm-hmm. Definitely.
Anita Kellogg: Yeah. So it makes Putin look weaker. And again, just very different. I mean, Proghozin is, you can tell, is just a very different operator and a very powerful operator in Russia.
And I think it's something that we're all grasping to try to really understand because it's out of character for Putin and really out to character. For [00:43:00] anyone who leads any type of coup or military rebellion, like they don't usually then just continue operating at
Ryan Kellogg: the big, high level. Summit. Yeah. The next, within a month.
Yeah. Yeah. So,
Anita Kellogg: so there's that. It's a puzzle. And in disappointing news for democracy, Israel's right wing government coalition in the ETT passed a law that would limit the Supreme Court's powers to [00:43:30] strike down government decisions. The law was passed by the right-wing coalition, government, the opposition actually walked out in protest and be said, the prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu has had its own judicial problems being convicted of corruption and so has a lot of incentive to want to reform the judiciary in order to save his own neck.
So basically the problem is Israel doesn't have a [00:44:00] constitution, and so one of the only. Check on government power, is the judiciary ensuring that those powers are not abused. Mm-hmm. So it has an even more important role than the judicial system has in most countries. And I've long said like the judiciary is just such an important part of maintaining democracy in every country.
And we've seen it like Columbia by not letting Europe serve a third term and a lot of countries just limiting the power [00:44:30] of the executive from taking over and becoming a defacto sort of authoritative leader. So any weakening of that is a definitely weakening of democracy. It's independent court is seen to need to safeguard other pressures.
So being able to balance the security needs and the democratic norms prevent further religious coercion. So I.
Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. I mean on, on that point, yeah. I was really surprised. Because [00:45:00] I, when I think of Israel, I really think of mostly a, a secular democracy. I don't think of it as like a place with like religious laws.
Mm-hmm. And yeah, the fact that, I don't know how long this has been on the books, but you can't have a civil marriage in Israel. You have to like leave the country if you don't want a religious I didn't know that. Marriage. Yeah. That was wild. And then public transportation doesn't function on the Shabbat.
Oh, at
Anita Kellogg: all. That's interesting too. Yeah. So
Ryan Kellogg: it's just because that's very orthodox. It's, it's [00:45:30] imposed on Yeah. The, my religious orthodox minority imposes this on a majority secular population.
Anita Kellogg: Yeah. And it's worth saying not only are many citizens secular in Israel, but you also have a significant Arab and Muslim minority.
Oh yeah. Existing.
Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. I, I mean I think that's the other is, I mean, the judicial system is the only line of defense of their right for minority rights. And there's this whole, there's a really excellent [00:46:00] essay by a Israeli journalist, Yossi Halevi in the Times of Israel, and it's a very personal account and he goes into just the, the changes and the dynamics within Israel over, particularly these last couple of years.
But I think it, it's really one of the things he talks about is this distinction on how the coalition, so Netanyahu's coalition, which consists of [00:46:30] the hard right Zionist and then the Ultra Orthodox religious groups and how. They don't view the Arab citizens of Israel. There's no conception of a secular Israel.
Right. In their mind. So they don't even view them as real Israelis. Mm-hmm. Kind of like the whole Yeah. Well, who's a real American Yeah. The, is the exact same sort of concept and it's just, yeah. Just kind of the, yeah. The sadness of that and the fact that the judicial branch [00:47:00] representing that last line of defense, of defending Israeli citizens of their own mm-hmm.
Rights. Mm-hmm. Yeah.
Anita Kellogg: Under this regime. Yeah. I think a lot of people, I remember when I was doing my master's in Amsterdam millions of years ago, and in the class really, really brought to my attention this tension within Israel because there were these two girls who were like best friends, and one was Jewish Israeli citizen, and one was a Muslim Jewish citizen.
And I admit that I hadn't really thought a lot about this [00:47:30] Arab Muslim minority in Israel. And it's just been a, a struggle for them to have equal rights under Israel. And how that's even getting worse for them
Ryan Kellogg: now. Oh yeah. Yeah. Absolutely. I think the other really interesting insight I had no idea about until I read this, this essay by Halevi, was the difference between mm-hmm.
The European, so the, of course Israel is a nation of immigrants, particularly [00:48:00] after World War II and the Holocaust, but you have the European Jewish immigrants, so the ash, and I'm not going to pronounce this right, the Ashkenazi Jews and then the Jews that are more from different parts of the Middle East, the Misra, and the fact that there's this like class and political divide between the two.
With the, as naum have traditionally been middle class, tend to be better educated, also tend to have all the elite [00:48:30] positions. Mm-hmm. Within society versus the Mizrahi. So those that came from the Middle East are more working class. Conservative and Netanyahu's really similar to Trump, has taken advantage of those.
Fissions. Mm-hmm. I think have always existed, really played into that. To the point where in this essay he's talking about some of the rhetoric being used. It's the same rhetoric as white nationalists use. Basically saying that the Ashkenazi, that they [00:49:00] wish that they had like killed 6 million more of them.
Wow. In the Holocaust. They're using the Holocaust against Jews using the Holocaust. That rhetoric against each other. And I was like, what is going on? That's crazy. That's just insane. So I think it really appreciate like the level of division and then of course the parallels to a certain extent within the US or maybe foreshadowing, I don't know.
But it was really eye-opening. The, what you mentioned it, it got a conception of the, the Diff, the Muslim and the Jew. Mm-hmm. But then I think at the Jewish, [00:49:30] just like this homogenous, I got like the OSHA Orthodox, but I didn't get this whole. European Jews from Europe and then Jews from the Middle East and like this huge division and, and hatred that Netanyahu's really stoked around this issue.
Anita Kellogg: Yeah. And we talked about Israel before and what this right wing coalition would, how that might change how Netanyahu governs Israel. And we're definitely seeing the effects of that because in his previous governments it was, he was forced to be a [00:50:00] lot more moderate. Mm-hmm. But now with the success of these more ultra conservative populace, having to lean toward their side and toward a ruling power, we can see the negative effects of that and how it's very negative for democracy itself.
Now one thing that they did not do that's still really important to mention is that one thing they've talked about is the government being able to appoint judges. And remove judges [00:50:30] whenever they want. And so the good thing is that hasn't passed. Mm-hmm. They haven't done that. So it still maintains an independent judiciary, but just wins whose powers are heavily eclipsed.
If they destroy the independence of the judiciary, then that would be a, a really serious problem. Democratic re right? Yeah. Yeah. So fortunately they haven't pursued that so far, but who knows what comes next.
Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. And it'll be interesting. I mean, it really has been a resurgence of the more [00:51:00] secular liberal in terms of like the scale of the protests.
Mm-hmm. They're going on like in mm-hmm. In Tel Aviv, and they had a big march from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. And this real conscious effort too, of not letting the far right, take the patriotic mm-hmm. Emblem. So using like, this is just like huge streams of Israeli flags and a lot of testimony. And because, I mean, I think it's, it is different in the sense that.
Everybody has to serve. Mm-hmm. And there is this, this [00:51:30] feeling of defense and patriotism and, and generations, their parents, their grandparents who fought in these numerous wars against Arab nations for the survival of their country and they have relatives that died in the Holocaust. It's like this very visceral sort of thing.
So seeing them push back and defend the country of how they think of it is heartening. But also, yeah. Sad that despite that they still have all this, it's not clear like how long or whether [00:52:00] or when the next election will be.
Anita Kellogg: Yeah. One thing that was interesting during the protest is that a lot of people serving in the military were protesting and saying that they wouldn't show it.
Wouldn't show it. Yeah. Yeah. So it'd be interesting, see Yeah. That, how that plays out, if that's actually true, would they be arrested? So I have a feeling it's, it's a minority that won't be that significant, but it definitely was.
Ryan Kellogg: Could be. Yeah. Yeah. So then I think the, the final thing was of course we [00:52:30] had to have our boy Thomas Friedman kind of ride in with his little deus ex machina supposed solution that all this was magically going to be solved and we'd be able to stick it to China.
That was nice because the US is getting ready to broker a gigantic deal with Saudi Arabia, which is, I mean, they, they have sent out at least feelers, and of course, the, his article was, it's [00:53:00] like, oh, this isn't going to be immediate, but just imagine the possibilities if we can broker this deal with Saudi Arabia, which had a, a number of different elements.
But one key part was the recognition, the formal recognition of Israel, but then in exchange for that, Essentially what the thought of what Saudi Arabia is asking for is a NATO like commitment from the us mm-hmm. For its defense, which I'm like, okay, this could be real popular within Congress, [00:53:30] but then Israel would also have to go back to the earlier agreements around like the West Bank and around settlements and a two state solution.
But in exchange, if you had formal recognition from Saudi Arabia and the rest of the SUNY Gulf states, that essentially that would defang a lot of the driving impetus for the far right within Israel. That was the theory around it.
Anita Kellogg: So one of the conditions, of [00:54:00] course, is that they would have to, in settlements in the West Bank, pull back settlements from the West Bank and guarantee that there'll be no even unauthorized sentiments, settlements built there.
So, One of my favorite quotes from Friedman was just, just doesn't sound right to me. It's like, I'd love to see Israel's far right finance minister, go on Israeli television and explain to the real people why doesn't Israel's interest to [00:54:30] annex the West Bank with its 2.9 million Palestinian habitants forever, rather than normalize ties with Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Muslim world.
I read this and I was like, you fundamentally don't understand populism. It's just popular will the way that they feel about the West Bank. No one's like weighing this with a deal with Saudi Arabia and for populist Yes, annexing. The West Bank is still probably going to be a lot more popular than a Saudi Arabia Israeli deal.
Ryan Kellogg: [00:55:00] Yeah, and they're, they're not going to see. They're like, well, how's this gain our security? I mean, Hamas is being funded by Iran. This doesn't affect. S ability. And then you have the religious, they're like, well, we're, we're religiously ordained to have this territory. Yeah. This is that. You're not going to reason with those people at all.
So, so he just
Anita Kellogg: doesn't understand populism.
Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, he doesn't understand that. And then, I mean, I thought, going back to this Hill Levy article, I mean, one of the, the things on what motivated the far right so much is you [00:55:30] had this pullback from Gaza in 2005, and they had to forcibly remove these settlers from their houses and didn't it, and, and his take of it, didn't it support them and resettling elsewhere or, and rebuilding their lives and, That's really driven this group, they want revenge.
Mm-hmm. For that. And that's the reason they hate the liberal state as well. Mm-hmm. So why are they going to, I mean just from that history, there's no way in [00:56:00] hell that that group's going to compromise.
Anita Kellogg: So this group is in control of the government, right. Why in the world we expect them to agree to some kind of deal.
And the more I read this article about what would have to happen, the more I was like, oh, this is really not going to happen. They're talking about transferring some of the Palestinian population from areas C in the West Bank under fully Israeli controlled to areas B and C under, I mean, just all these sort of things that having a right wing government is never going to happen.[00:56:30]
And so what is incentive for them?
Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, the only thing would be the US would have to lay the hammer down, which I don't see it doing. How could it even do that? Cut full cutoff of aid. Never as far as, yeah. And then, I mean, the other complexity then is also, this has to pass the Senate. This is like a formal, so Saudi Arabia's widely hated within the country and, and I think we question more and more our strategic relationship with them [00:57:00] other than denying China.
And we've talked about before, that's not, I mean, Saudi Arabia's using China as leverage to get a NATO like deal, which would be coup for them. But yeah, the idea
Anita Kellogg: Senate, Senate security commitments from China and the Middle East, although that would
Ryan Kellogg: never like compare. That's not going to be,
Anita Kellogg: yeah. Yeah. But I mean, Chinese influence is real and you're not going to get rid of that influence.
I mean, the money that's involved in that, and Yeah. But I also
Ryan Kellogg: don't think us influence is really [00:57:30] under threat because of the defensive, the already the defensive commitments, the military equipment, all the things already tied deeply embedded. Right. But we're not
Anita Kellogg: offering anything new to them. And China's offering new things.
Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. But I think they're not, they can't afford to res switch out like all their equipment. Right. You have that embedded Oh, in the military, military technology.
Anita Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah, yeah. But influence and otherwise, right, right. China gets to offer them things like Yeah. Ours is baked in. There's nothing new that we're going to offer.
[00:58:00] Well,
Ryan Kellogg: I mean, we're, uh, yeah. I mean, the other parts of this deal besides the, the NATO like commitment is giving them the Thad missile defense mm-hmm. Which they want because of Iran. Mm-hmm. Would neutralize Iran's. Mm-hmm. Medium range missiles, and I think access to some other military tech. So that's what they're, they're pushing for.
Anita Kellogg: And then there's also that the Palestinian Authority Friedman says, would have to take part in this, but then he admits they're kind of a They're a mess. Yeah, they're a mess. Yeah. And so they can't engage in peace talks [00:58:30] with Israel today. Right. So in some,
for some
Ryan Kellogg: reason it's a slam dunk. That's what you mean.
Anita Kellogg: Israel's right wing government is going to commit to these sort of liberal ideas of not annexing the West Bank and all these other elements. So somehow the right wing is going to go against its own popular interest. Mm-hmm. Then the United States would have to pass it in Congress, which is [00:59:00] unlikely.
And then the Palestinian authority would have to be part of this process. And that's not. Likely to happen.
Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. I mean, I think for all three parts. Yeah. And to be fair, Freeman did mention that Saudi Arabia would have to cut a gigantic check to the Palestinian authority, which maybe helps them get less dysfunctional, like being better funded.
I don't know, that would I, they did mention that as part of it, but yeah. But yeah, to your point, so there's
Anita Kellogg: three key elements, and all of [00:59:30] them are extraordinarily unlikely. So the only thing that this argument, this article helped me see is just how unlikely the Israel Saudi Arabia deal is. I mean, previously I thought it was unlikely, but I didn't know all the reasons why it was unlikely.
And now I understand why this is not going to happen.
Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, it's too many pieces. Because I think the other thing going back to the congressional approval was there's no way Senate Democrats are going to vote for it unless there is the [01:00:00] two state solution. But then the right wing, the right wing in Israel there, his entire government and the coalition depends on yeah, this religious like fervor.
Mm-hmm. For manifest destiny of occupying all of the Palestinian territory.
Anita Kellogg: So it's ironic that he's writing an article to convince people that
Ryan Kellogg: this isn't he supposed to be an expert on the Middle East, isn't this his area of
Anita Kellogg: specialty? And really his entire argument convinced me to the [01:00:30] opposite that there's no chance of this happening.
That there's too many parts that have to happen and they're all such long shots. And the fact that all three of them would happen, this is just this, this is not going to happen. I'm sure. The Biden administration would love to have this deal. Oh, yeah.
Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. That would be, that'd be a huge win.
Anita Kellogg: I think you had convinced me in the past that this is more likely until I read this article and then I was like, Nope.
Well,
Ryan Kellogg: then when you, well, and you see the direction the Israeli government has gone down and just what it's really [01:01:00] capable and composed of, and that makes it seems like dead on arrival right there under a different Israeli government or even the one, yeah. When this is first being talked about in the Trump administration, I think it's possible.
This one, no. Yeah.
Anita Kellogg: No, not at all. Yeah. It would still be extraordinarily a long shot under the government previous to this, but now it seems impossible. Yeah. All right. Well, I think this brings us [01:01:30] to the end of this episode of Kellogg's Global Politics. You can visit our website at www.kelloggsglobalpolitics.com and follow us on Twitter @GlobalKellogg or me @arkellogg.
Ryan Kellogg: You can also reach us by email, so anita@kelloggsglobalpolitics.com and myself, ryan@kelloggsglobalpolitics.com. And as always, please see the show notes for any of the articles we discussed in this episode. And if you like the show, please take the time to tell your friends, [01:02:00] share it on your social sites.
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