Kellogg's Global Politics

Emergency Podcast: Israel at War

• Anita Kellogg • Episode 39

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Last week, shortly before we recorded our episode, we woke up to the news of the Hamas attack on Israel. Very little was known at the time, and so we kept our reactions brief. We felt the need to go deeper into this significant conflict, however, and decided to record an episode just on the Israel-Hamas war. We hope this brings you greater insight into this terrible event in a very complicated region of the world.


Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Hamas Attack on Israel and Preparing for Gaza Invasion

US Policy Options and a Vision after the War

Hezbollah, Iran, and China



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Anita Kellogg: [00:00:00] Welcome to Kellogg's Global Politics. Last week, shortly before we recorded our episode, we woke up with the news. the Hamas attack on Israel. Very little was known at the time and so we kept our reactions brief. We felt the need to go deeper into this significant conflict, however, and decided to record an episode just on the Israel Hamas War.

We hope this brings you greater insight into this terrible event [00:00:30] in a very complicated region of the world. Before we delve into the atrocities and horror of what happened, just a very, very brief background on how things got to be where they are today. So after World War I, the British take over this area from the Ottoman Empire, and they also encouraged Jews who are facing persecution in Europe to migrate to the area.

After World War II, there was a proposal for two states, an Arab state and a Jewish state, [00:01:00] but this was rejected by the Arab nations. In 1948, Israel declares its independence, and many wars with Arab nations ensue. The current borders are due to the 1967 war, where Israel captures the West Bank and East Jerusalem from Jordan, the Gaza Strip from Egypt, and Gowan Heights from Syria.

There's been a long involved peace process for a two state solution, but mostly this has been undermined by extremists on both sides. Perhaps [00:01:30] 2000 was the closest to a peace plan where, according to David Brooks in the New York Times, Palestinians were offered a path having their own nation on roughly 95 percent of the land in the West Bank and 100 percent of the land in the Gaza Strip.

Under that outline, Israel would also swap some of its own land to compensate the Palestinians in exchange for maintaining 80 percent of its settler presence in the West Bank. The Israeli cabinet voted to accept the plan. Yet, Yasser Arafat, according to David Brooks, did what he [00:02:00] generally did. He never said no, but he never said yes.

Last peace talks that were held were in 2014. So that's kind of gets us to the situation today doesn't really talk about the kind of violence and what is rooted this violence, but Gaza is very isolated and completely dependent on Israel for fuel. Most of its electricity, when it does produce itself.

comes from fuel from Israel. Typically, electricity only lasts [00:02:30] half the day anyway, so they have severe shortages and borderline humanitarian crisis on a good day. So bringing us to the present day, Israel has suffered over 1, 200 killed and 3, 000 wounded, what represents the deadliest incursion in its history.

80 percent of these casualties were civilians. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, so beyond this horrible loss of human life, and I think everybody's been frankly horrified by some of the images and the [00:03:00] tactics that were used by Hamas to target these civilians, to target the music festival, to target the two kibbutzes close to the Gaza border.

But I think taking a step back, I mean, the other thing that this represented was just that. a massive failure of both the intelligence apparatus and IDF security forces to protect its its citizens. And I think as we [00:03:30] briefly talked about last week, it was the the scale and the coordination that Hamas forces exhibited that were really shocking.

And there have been more details, obviously, that have come out. But As you mentioned kind of in the intro, I mean, the Gaza Strip effectively is a, is a type of open air prison and that Israel supposedly controls all entry and exit points into the territory, and that includes a very [00:04:00] sophisticated fence and then barrier system and then series of watchtowers, but Hamas and its attack before it committed these atrocities systematically targeted and neutralized IDF forces is.

At these watchtowers attacked two military bases to the point where Israeli military was unable to respond for several hours, in which case Hamas forces ran rampant and committed the atrocities that [00:04:30] a lot of the, the Western press has been focused on. 

Anita Kellogg: It's so shocking. I mean, obviously the atrocities are shocking and horrible, but it is kind of this failure of the Israeli military is also shocking that Hamas could take them out.

In that manner. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. I mean, not only through the rockets, which have gotten a lot of attention, but they hit these towers with drone strikes, essentially. And then followed up with using bulldozers [00:05:00] to destroy the fencing, fencing system. And then because all the cameras were so oriented internally. towards Gaza, there was really no set of eyes for IDF to know like how bad it had gotten.

So for a intelligence apparatus and a military that frankly is so highly esteemed and feared within the region, it represented a gigantic [00:05:30] reputational blow, which I think a lot of people have been speculating. Part of the The message that Israel wants to send in its response is to restore that deterrence that has been pretty badly damaged because of the strike.

Anita Kellogg: Right, I don't know how killing a whole bunch of citizens in Gaza really does that, but... 

Ryan Kellogg: Well, yeah, we'll get into, we'll get into that. It's what Israel is, is... operated under this system [00:06:00] of extreme deterrence through, through an exaggerated or huge response. It's never been in this situation where its casualties are greater than the other side.

Normally it's like a 10 to one ratio and most of the conflicts that's fought. We 

Anita Kellogg: maybe end up 10 to one. Right. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Tragically. So I think beyond kind of these failures, the other. issue on well, why have these failures, what's been within the environment [00:06:30] within what's going on domestically within Israel that's created these conditions.

I think it's, it's something we talked about a couple of episodes ago and was highlighted in a recent Washington Post op ed by a professor at the Hebrew university. And it's just the, the failures related to Netanyahu's populism and the conditions, particularly In his latest administration that came to power in December 2022, [00:07:00] and the fact that there's been so much focus on the West Bank, on the further building of settlements there, that Israeli defense forces that are stationed normally in Gaza had been pulled from those locations and were in the West Bank instead during this incursion.

On top of that, you've also had the challenges against the judiciary that have helped divide the country to the point [00:07:30] where you had a number of reservists not reporting to duty in protest to these anti democratic moves by the Netanyahu administration. So I think there's a lot of accountability that needs to come after.

After this all gets sorted out one way or the other, but I'm not, I'm not sure that that'll happen. 

Anita Kellogg: One thing that I think is fascinating is the emergency war government that they set up, which includes his main challenger, [00:08:00] who, who was in charge of Israel for many years, and mainly consists of very experienced people in defense and military matters, and sort of a way of circumventing the kind of...

more extremist characters or less experienced characters in the normal cabinet from being able to control how the war efforts. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, exactly. And I think it, it empowers the more the [00:08:30] professional, the IDF defense minister and people that are more professional, I mean, similar to professionals within our own bureaucratic system as opposed to political appointees.

And I think that's the, that's the thing because the IDF had warned Netanyahu months before of the dangers of his divisiveness. In terms of security, in terms of national security and the impact on that, but all of these warnings were, were ignored. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah, and [00:09:00] I mean, you saw, like, I was, when you were watching TV, I saw some Israeli citizen talking about one of his relatives being kidnapped.

But this expression of how he just felt let down by both sides, by his own government, in addition, obviously, to, to what's going on with Hamas, to be able to, Find a lasting solution, a peace solution. And I mean, that's one of the problems that's so frustrating is we'll talk later, but what does this lead to?

[00:09:30] What comes next? And if you can't have peace, then how can you ever really resolve the situation? Right. And without a two state solution, you'll never have peace. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, I think, I think without a doubt. So I think we, we could now wanted to start off looking at, well, what, what is Hamas trying to accomplish?

What are its strategic and political goals and, and provoking Israel in this way? This first one we're going to [00:10:00] start with has been embraced. I think that's been the other interesting thing about this conflict is a lot of cases being compared to their version of 9 11. I think you've seen sympathy, especially in the first couple of days.

come from places not necessarily expected. Arab states certainly expressed sympathy, but that shifted pretty quickly. And you saw it shift also quickly in Western capitals, I think, [00:10:30] particularly within Europe and then on university campuses here. And that's really related to their first motivation and one that's embraced.

I think particularly by the left, both in Europe and the US is the end that they took this action because Gaza has effectively been this open air prison and a continuous siege on Gaza. So for 16 years, Israel's essentially had this near [00:11:00] total control where you mentioned up front electricity, fuel supplies, all of that.

And it's seen by both. throughout the world and on the left within the West is that these actions taken by Hamas condoning them or their approaches are seen as the outcome because nonviolent approaches have failed. That this is a result of Israel [00:11:30] decisions to not follow a two state solution. Because there have been a lot of nonviolent approaches.

But what's been seen, you know, particularly in, in the last 10 years is Israel betraying the spirit of the Oslo Accords and other peace measures by taking over more and more Palestinian territory, particularly within the West Bank. So that's seen as, as probably the the number one [00:12:00] motivation for Hamas, but it's certainly for, it's people that aren't.

who are defending kind of their general approach and resistance against Israeli occupation. This is kind of how, how they're framing it. 

Anita Kellogg: Well, I think there's the aspect of nothing, nothing justifies what Hamas did. There's no justification for it. But we need to know what makes an organization act out the way it does.

And the situation in Gaza has bred [00:12:30] this sort of violence and is fed The majority still don't support Hamas, but it's certainly fed some of the support that there is for Hamas. So I think you can talk about the situation and say that it doesn't justify what has happened, but that in order to understand what's happened, you have to understand the situation in Gaza.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, these real material conditions that are kind of underlying this, that, that sort of system is going to eventually create a [00:13:00] violent... In this case, barbaric response, but beyond that, looking strategically, I think various analysts have laid out a couple other motivations on Hamas. So one, there's been a number of articles about this was designed deliberately to draw Israeli forces into a trap, into a quagmire, very similar to what they experienced in southern Lebanon with Hezbollah from 1985 to 2000.[00:13:30] 

We've mentioned briefly before, but Gaza is a extremely densely populated urban environment. It has networks of hundreds of miles of tunnels, of which Hamas has, has control. And then... It's very likely that the hostages, the roughly 200 hostages, are being held in these underground bunkers of which there are tens of thousands of Hamas fighters.

So fighting in that sort of environment really [00:14:00] neutralizes all of the technological advantages that the IDF has. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah, going back earlier, one of the interesting things is that, of course, they knew about these tunnels and the tunnels are how they smuggled in all these weapons and they had no idea the extent of the tunnel system and we talked sort of in my class to like, there's so much monitoring of like geological shifts and such and yet they were still able to create these tunnels without Israel knowing.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, [00:14:30] and this was an issue prior to Israel pulling out in 2006, the tunnels, but those tunnels have become even more expansive. Over time. So yeah, so that that scene is one motivation is drawing them into a ground conflict, which Israel seems poised to take them up on and they've come out. The official goals reporting the Washington Post this morning, according to three senior Israeli military officials is to [00:15:00] destroy the leadership.

Of Hamas and essentially in their ability to wage both war, but also to be a political entity within the greater Palestinian Authority as well. And that really draws on kind of their, their second motivations driven by domestic politics within Palestine itself. So the Palestinian Authority, which is the recognized entity of the Palestinian People, and [00:15:30] has been since the Oslo Accords in the mid 1990s, is currently dominated by Fatah, which is a secular national movement, and is led currently by Muammar Abbas.

Now, Hamas is seeking to upsurp that, they're actually enemies with Fatah, consider them weak, and because... The PLO, the Palestinian Authority, has been unwilling to engage in violence, has tried to work with Israelis on [00:16:00] diplomatic solutions that they're seeing as weak and essentially haven't accomplished anything.

Anita Kellogg: Well, also, I think in light of these increasing encroachments in the West Bank, right? That's also what makes them look weak, because if you're pursuing diplomacy, but Israel's taking more and 

Ryan Kellogg: more land. It's just taking more and more. Right. No, absolutely. It's, it's definitely driven, driven by that. And in fact, the, the attack itself is named after how they call it internally, as in response to a [00:16:30] July incursion by the IDF into the Al Aqsa Mosque in the West Bank, which is considered, I think, the third holiest site for Muslims in the region.

And it's something that the PLO did nothing to prevent or counter. So, it's seen as a direct proof that... We take Palestinian autonomy and defense seriously. So they're trying to position themselves. There hasn't been an election. They, they take a step back. The Hamas is. Effectively the de facto ruler [00:17:00] within Gaza, but there haven't been elections since 2007.

But not the West Bank. I think that's... Not against, yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: So I think that's an important distinction that the, the Palestinian Authority is the representatives of the West Bank still. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, they control the West Bank and they're also the officially internationally recognized body and representative of the Palestinian people.

But Hamas wants to, wants to change that. And then the other one, which, which we talked about. Also, a lot of analysts have talked about [00:17:30] is the disruption of the political realignment that has been ongoing within the Middle East. That is specifically the talks around Israel Saudi normalization, but also seeking to unwind the Abraham Accords, which were a series of normalizations accomplished under the Trump administration of the UAE and Bahrain, so the Arab Gulf states.

Where we talked about before on if you can force [00:18:00] Israel to go into Gaza, if it takes the this doctrine of disproportionality that it's had throughout its history of this 10 to 1 ratio, and you see thousands upon thousands of Palestinian citizens in Gaza dying as a result of this offensive approach, then even though we're going You're dealing with autocratic, undemocratic regimes.

We've seen already, over this past week, [00:18:30] massive protests which are allowed by these regimes as an outlet for the Palestinian people. You see it in Iraq, you've seen it within the Gulf states. The more that this goes on, the more casualties, the more pictures of dead children. Israel loses more and more of its, its credibility and what sympathy it has now, which is already waning very quickly.

It's going to force even these elites that [00:19:00] govern these states to maybe take a step back and potentially reversing normalization with Israel. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah, I mean, Israel is in an impossible situation. I think I should state before I talk about how I feel about the humanitarian situation. Um, because. Hamas does hide among civilians.

It's natural that they want to decapitate the leadership and make sure they don't have the capabilities to have another type of incursion or even continue the one [00:19:30] that is going on now. Also just really. It's impossible for Israel to do that without civilian casualties, but on the other hand, Israel could be more careful in trying to minimize casualties.

I think one thing that kind of bothers me is this siege, total siege, of not allowing any electricity, fuel, water, food to cross the border. They're running out of electricity to just [00:20:00] run hospitals even. The water is wide. is on desalination plants and that requires fuel from Israel. So you could be in a situation very quickly where there's not even clean water available.

And I feel like on one hand I had a Marine who said it's about weakening the will of the people to resist. But I don't think that's a very accurate situation because it's not like the will of the people leading this, this war. Creating, we have to be [00:20:30] better than our enemies. Yes, Hamas was so brutal, but it doesn't then mean like, oh, then it makes sense to have no electricity, have people dying in hospitals because they can't have basic care.

And Israel has even attacked several hospitals. And it's true that Hamas does keep some equipment in hospitals. It's been known to in the past, but you have to be better than your enemies. And this humanitarian crisis that Israel's invoking not only doesn't help them strategically, but it's also just.

[00:21:00] wrong from a human rights standpoint. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, and I think, I think that's the, the danger. And certainly what's been concerning is some of the, the dehumanized language and this idea of collective punishment coming from Israeli officials. I mean, the fact that the defense minister in this announcement of cutting off power, food and gas saying, quote, we are fighting human animals and we act accordingly.

And I get that. That maybe meant Hamas, but [00:21:30] when you're taking this action, you're collectively punishing 2 million people within the Gaza Strip, of which I think a lot of people have pointed out 50 percent are under the age of 14. So these essentially are our children that you're punishing with this action.

And this is part of Hamas's strategy. And they know that if Israel overreacts as it has and tries this disproportionality that Yeah, Arab [00:22:00] capitals won't hold, and that if you do this, if you see this disengagement, then it represents a major setback for Israeli national security overall. It gives a victory to Hamas.

It gives a victory to Hamas, it gives a victory to Iran as well. And that's really going back to the pushback against normalization. I mean, this is really a greater threat to Iran. Because the idea was [00:22:30] to set up a, a defense coalition, which we talked about and criticized before the idea of a defense arrangement with Saudi Arabia and with these Gulf states.

Mm-hmm. . But in terms of Israeli security, it would be a gigantic game changer and, and not in the interest of Iran at all. To have this unified Arab, Israeli, US Defense Network economic framework would disempower greatly. Iran, potentially, in the [00:23:00] region. 

Anita Kellogg: Mm hmm. Definitely. And I think there was a sense, as I mentioned in our last episode, that the concern that the Palestinians would be forgotten completely, that there might be some normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, possibly without a two state solution.

And whether that, how realistic that is or not, there was a sense that here we have this terrible crisis, and even for our own interests, beyond how it serves Rest of the region [00:23:30] that that is bad for the Palestinian people So, I mean, I think that the situation Israel finds itself in is somehow it has to damage Hamas While not feeding into this and they're not doing a good job with the second part of it not creating a humanitarian crisis That's going to evoke the ire around the world particularly in these Arab nations 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, and it is a very difficult.

I mean we've We've been watching it. [00:24:00] It's, I think already they, they initially gave citizen or Gazan residents 24 hours in order to evacuate the northern part of Gaza, which is seen, which includes Gaza City and is seen as the, the hotbed of where Hamas has most of its headquarters, its tunnel systems.

And that's been expanded. They've expanded it. It looks like another 24 hours that they've given, but it doesn't seem like. Either the U. S. [00:24:30] or Egypt have been very successful about creating humanitarian corridors. Egypt, for, for good reasons, knowing that it would potentially destabilize their own country to open the, the floodgates to the southern exit point from Gaza into Egypt, has not been forthcoming around that.

And I guess the U. S. hasn't been. Great and accomplishing that despite Blinken going on a blitz in the area. I mean, he visited Israel, he's visited all U. S. allies in the region within the [00:25:00] last week. 

Anita Kellogg: So when I was listening to the news yesterday, it seems that there was hope that the Americans could get out on this Egypt border, but Egypt won't open the border unless humanitarian aid is allowed through to Gaza.

And that's the problem is that. No one is making this deal where humanitarian aid can reach the people of Gaza. So, if you make that deal, then you probably can get Americans and maybe other groups out. Yeah, yeah. I mean, there should be said [00:25:30] that this humanitarian crisis is not helping the, it's not helping the hostages either.

I mean, you're out of food and water. Really give your best resources to the hostages. 

Ryan Kellogg: No, I mean, and, and, I mean, the hostages are meant as bargaining chips. They are based on previous negotiations I think Hamas has had with Israel. And the fact that, I mean, this is an extraordinary number of hostages compared to previous hostage situations.

I think they've been able to exchange in the [00:26:00] past, like three Israeli defense forces for hundreds of Palestinian Hamas. groups held within Israeli prisons. So I think to a certain extent, the hostages are valuable. But yeah, in terms of prioritizing treatment, what I'm saying is, I mean, I think the treatment will be better than like how ISIS treated Western hostages, just because There is something for Hamas to gain through potential [00:26:30] negotiation.

That being said, I agree. Yeah, they're not going to prioritize resources for, for hostages. 

Anita Kellogg: When you're talking about Gaza City, so basically what they told Palestinians is that there's 2 million in Palestine. And they said the whole, a million of them living in the north has to flee south. Yeah. There's no food and shelter for them, 

Ryan Kellogg: right?

Yeah, there's like some refugee camp, but yeah, not to support that, that huge a population. You can't 

Anita Kellogg: even get like the UN or anything in [00:27:00] there to provide refugee relief. Yeah. So, this is obviously a really terrible situation. Yeah. I think this conflict is the most depressing. Well, all conflicts are extraordinarily depressing, but this one is so depressing because it's hard to see a positive scenario.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, I I think there can be and I think I think so It's well, I mean this situation in general [00:27:30] is the most thorny and knotted situation within probably international relations period. I mean, more than like the North South Korea. No, way more. This is the nightmare scenario that so many U. S.

administrations have dedicated time, resources, political capital on and have all miserably failed. That being said, what progress there has been in normalization, like with Egypt and other [00:28:00] areas, and we'll talk a little bit later on like the U. S. policy options. But several analysts, including David Ignatius in the Washington Post, outlined that what progress there has been has come after major conflicts between Israel and its, and its enemies.

But the problem is, the Netanyahu administration is not the type of administration, I think, to take advantage of these potential opportunities. Absolutely not. And I think that's [00:28:30] the failure, and it'll be up to the Israeli people to hold Netanyahu responsible, well, frankly, for this massive, unprecedented intelligence and defense failure.

But, 

Anita Kellogg: I mean, can they really do that? Because... All the ways that he has been weakening the judiciary, I just think it'll be very hard for them to hold him accountable. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, and I think that, that's the [00:29:00] difficult, and I think that's probably the, the driving force behind the, the pessimism, is that, yeah, the Israeli government has not been a fair partner, or We're actor in the last decade or so towards a what I think everybody accepts as the, the only long term solution of a, of a two state solution.

Anita Kellogg: Yeah, I just think it's, it's rooted in this thorny history and it's [00:29:30] complicated history and what I mean by not seeing a good outcome is. I mean, I'll be very surprised if there isn't something like the 10 to 1, maybe not that extreme, but outcome in this, and I don't see, it's just hard to see positive, anything positive coming or a long term solution.

I don't know. It's just, I thought it was a depressing situation before this. And just the breakdown in peace talks since 2014, no one's even attempted [00:30:00] that. And a lot of that has to do with, I believe, Netanyahu's been in power much of that time. 

Ryan Kellogg: So I think we can wrap up by looking at what, what policy options does, does the U.

S. have? What, what approach has it taken thus far? I think the, the biggest action that the U. S. has done Besides kind of its full public statements backing up Israel in terms of its defense commitments has [00:30:30] been ordering two aircraft carrier battle groups sent to the region, essentially to try to deter that any other regional actors, particularly Hezbollah.

And to a lesser extent, Iran from taking any, any advantage of the situation. The other action that it took late last week and in which many on the right here have tried to take political advantage of is the trying to tie the 6 billion in [00:31:00] funds, which represented revenue from oil sales from South Korea as part of the hostage negotiation with Iran over American hostages, also around trying to deescalate and to restart the process around nuclear weapons negotiations, had released these funds, but Unlike how it was kind of framed within certain areas on, on the right within the U.

S., the release of these [00:31:30] funds were strictly controlled by the U. S. Treasury Department and by the Qatar authorities. That's where the funds reside within the banks there, and they're only meant to be used for humanitarian purpose. That being said, they've been re frozen. Right, they've never been, they were never destroyed.

They were never, they've never been released. It never could have gotten used to fund Hamas, but those are probably the two biggest actions that that U. S. has taken beyond kind of Blinken going on a diplomatic tour to U. S. allies within the [00:32:00] region as well. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah, we kind of skipped over this a little bit, but One of the other issues and how this could possibly get worse is if this escalated to a bigger conflict and that is something that the U.

S. has a role in preventing. I mean, I have an Iraq general in my class, and he pointed out that if you tried to go to war with Iran over this, you wouldn't just. Be Iran, you have the Houthis in Yemen, you have groups in Iraq, in Syria that all [00:32:30] can hit Israel. Nothing could be more than of a nightmare, I think, than another war like this in the Middle East.

And so the US has to pursue conflict carefully. Relations here, carefully in not giving other groups. Seeing this as an opportunity to attack Israel such as Hezbollah, but also making sure this doesn't spread into a wider war. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, no, exactly. And it seems like Hezbollah probably probed Israeli [00:33:00] defenses shortly after the attack on October 7th, which it did actually result in in multiple deaths Which was significant since it it was the first since 2006 which I found pretty surprising Given it seems like there's been exchanges beyond that There's a good article in the war in the rocks, which really Talk about why Hezbollah hasn't escalated thus far or in the IDF hasn't really sought.

That either Hezbollah compared to Hamas [00:33:30] is a much larger force, much more sophisticated, which is disturbing, given how Hamas was able to carry out pretty sophisticated attack. They thought they have over 50, 000 fighters and over 150, 000 rockets and missiles. That being said, the IDF has probably been the most focused since 2006 on waging war against Hezbollah.

So Hezbollah knows it would potentially instill heavy losses. And it's also not as popular as [00:34:00] Hamas is within Gaza. And the area controls in southern Lebanon. So it really probably also threatened if Lebanon is pulled into this conflict, Hezbollah would not be very, very popular within this. And then obviously, IDF has been, it's probably the only So, yeah.

Thank you. military force in the world can, that can mobilize 300, 000 reservists within a period of a week. And a lot of those reservists have actually been positioned on the northern border to [00:34:30] also deter Hezbollah as well. Yeah, 

Anita Kellogg: so the thing that worries me the most is some sort of escalation in the region.

And hopefully that will be avoided, that we can take careful policy steps and diplomacy to make sure that doesn't happen. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, and I think so that's really the the challenge that the US has in front of it And you've had these allusions to to 9 11 Comparing [00:35:00] this to what the US went through and obviously the the US Through Afghanistan through Iraq and a lot of ways enormously counterproductive to our national interests.

So Can the U. S. communicate these, these lessons, and it's the only nation on earth that can really constrain Israel and its approach. Particularly when, when trying to push forth a vision [00:35:30] of what happens. Let's say you are able to decapitate Hamas in a relatively quick way. I don't think it's in Israel's interest for a long term Reoccupation of of Gaza that's going to create the quagmire that they want that will lead to massive civilian casualties.

But how can the U. S. effectively communicate and build a vision for for the [00:36:00] future? 

Anita Kellogg: Well, it's extremely important because the U. S. would be drawn into any conflict. 

Ryan Kellogg: If it's seen as a quagmire and then weakness, I don't, I don't see it being to such an extent that the concern is that if Israel looks so weak, then an actual vision among non state actors, as well as state actors, that forget the two state solution.

Let's go back to what Arab states originally wanted to attend, which was [00:36:30] the one state solution and elimination of the Jewish state, period. 

Anita Kellogg: I don't think, though, that anyone is going to adopt that stance. 

Ryan Kellogg: I don't think it's, it's realistic. Obviously, this is what Israel... Hamas wants. Yeah, this is what Hamas wants.

This is what Iran wants. Mm hmm. I don't see this, and maybe this is what the Arab population wants, but they have no power within the majority of the Gulf Arab [00:37:00] states. I don't think this is what the elites want. I mean, I think the, and what, what's perhaps naively framed also in this David Ignatius piece, but the plan that they're talking about within this article is, can the U.

S. position Israel convince them to go back toward a viable two state solution and normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia with this, [00:37:30] this idea as, unpalatable as Mohammed bin Salman is given his his own human rights abuses, both to U. S. resident citizens through the Khashoggi murder and through the conflict within Yemen, but to essentially to empower Saudi Arabia as the peace broker, since his vision is much more pragmatic.

He has reintroduced more secular. reforms, more [00:38:00] empowerment for women, giving them some rights within Saudi Arabia. But this whole vision 2030 rests in part on the idea of U. S. defense arrangements and Israeli normalization. And can you take, build a vision in a post Hamas of the Palestinian authority, which is currently weak and seen as corrupt, Arab money pouring into it.

But all of this requires Israel to embrace, then, this [00:38:30] new Palestinian authority backed by a more reformist minded Gulf and Saudi states as a credible partner for a two state solution. And I think that's where the challenge lies, is that there's nothing within the Netanyahu various administrations, as it's become more and more extreme over the decades, that would think that they could have a credible 

Anita Kellogg: partner.

Yeah, you lost me because I don't see these. I mean, it's nice [00:39:00] that people are a bit visioning how there could be a good solution, but the political realities don't seem to support this ideal dream of how you would have a permanent peace. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, because it's I mean, it's failures obviously on both sides. I mean, you mentioned at the beginning the Brooks piece, which saw Arafat turning down What in retrospect was basically as as good as it it gets it's the vast majority of the West Bank It's all the [00:39:30] Gaza Strip.

It's a real roadmap to a two state solution in a administration this this brief window when you had a more progressive Israeli administration in place, despite the fact that 

Anita Kellogg: he aggressively ran on peace, 

Ryan Kellogg: aggressively ran on peace. And this is before the previous prime minister had been assassinated, essentially for agreeing to the original Oslo Accords.

So yeah, you [00:40:00] have that failure. And then you had the failure kind of in response to that, where. There's just been this, to hell with it, we're just going to take apart the West Bank one piece at a time. And part of this is also driven, yeah, the internal, the one time they did try to disassemble, and I think in 2005, some of the West Bank settlements, that directly led to the empowerment of these religious zealots that have come to [00:40:30] power under Netanyahu's Yeah.

Coalition that he put together. So it is really hard to imagine with this current administration as corrupt and as extreme as it is, having the political courage and foresight to see what's really in Israel's long term interest in pursuing that, pursuing that path. But I think people have to, I [00:41:00] mean, the U.

S. has to put forward some sort of vision. Yeah. Otherwise, yeah, it's definitely not serving our interests. Our interests are most certainly a two state solution and stability within the region and containment and isolation of Iran. And the normalization was the best way of, of accomplishing it. 

Anita Kellogg: You said it perfectly.

I don't have anything to add. 

Ryan Kellogg: And then, just talking about this issue, saying anything that could be [00:41:30] construed as pro Palestinian, even though I think we're being pretty pragmatic in the discussion of it. I know some people will be unhappy. Very complex situation, but yeah, but I think it's that very environment that's led to even the extreme reactions you've seen, like on college campuses as well, and these views are fairly extreme and the opposite side, but I think you have to [00:42:00] acknowledge that Israel has not handled well, particularly in the last 20 years, the treatment plan.

Of the Palestinian people, the treatment of Arab citizens within its own state. One thing 

Anita Kellogg: we've learned from our conflicts too, you can kill every member of Hamas if you did that. And you're still going to have terrorism in Gaza, because you're just going to breed more and more terrorists. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, no, I mean, we're the best position after [00:42:30] 20 years of futile effort within both Afghanistan and Iraq to come to this in a sober way as Israel's greatest benefactor to, to deliver this message, but you, you have not seen it.

I get it. It's very raw right now. Nobody would approach to us and nobody need. Of course, we weren't able to react as quickly as Israel is, and this is a more [00:43:00] existential threat in a way. It's a more 

Anita Kellogg: existential threat, but it's also deeper history, right? I mean, the only thing about 9 11 that I find not a good is not like we were fighting a war or that we had any residual conflict in Afghanistan.

Ryan Kellogg: Well, I mean, that in itself is complicated, and obviously we, we funded these forces as, as part of the anti Soviet measure. I mean, we, we funded the Mujahideen. The [00:43:30] reason that bin Laden attacked was, could directly be tied back to U. S. military presence, dating back to the Gulf War. So all these, it's not to say that it came completely out of the blue, but yeah, it's not nearly the in depth.

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, the attack is unlike anything else in Israel's history, but there's constant violence between Hamas and Israel. This isn't something that is new. It's not a new conflict, and it's not [00:44:00] new to being militarized or violent. Anyway, I think it falls down a little bit in that respect. 

Ryan Kellogg: But I think it remains that, I mean, the U.

S. is going to play a very critical role to how this ends and what the vision for the future is in terms of relations. What's kind of interesting in seeing this too is we've talked a lot about China and trying [00:44:30] to push them, or they're trying to become an increasing power in the region, but I think The more and more of this highlights that the U.

S. still remains kind of the indispensable power within the region. Unquestionably. 

Anita Kellogg: I mean, and that's because more of our military security relationships and it's a region that has so many security issues. 

Ryan Kellogg: And even though it's in our strategic interest to pivot away from this region of which we're not, you know, is [00:45:00] dependent from a commodity energy standpoint, we're still constantly like pulled back into it.

Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: And I think this is issue Y because of our support for Israel, Israel, the never having the final peace between Israel and Palestine or other factions. In the Arab world, that's one of the reasons why we keep getting pulled back in, is not because of the importance of oil as a commodity, but just our [00:45:30] history there, our security agreements and arrangements there.

So we're, we're the great power in this region, but it's also what draws us in to kind of these quagmires too, and doesn't maybe allow us to focus as much as we want to in other regions, which mostly means China. I say other regions, let's, we say a lot of things when we really mean China. 

Ryan Kellogg: So it's, it's, it's a thin line.

Obviously the, the biggest thing is not allowing this [00:46:00] to spiral into a regional conflict and the something that pulls in Iran and then obviously probably pulls in the U. S. Because this gives the, the window of opportunity for China with the U. S. and Europe obviously already engaged. And Ukraine than the second major conflict happening potentially in the Middle East.

This creates that window of opportunity for China to move on Taiwan. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. And I think for the militant thinking I'm [00:46:30] teaching on the industrial militarized base industrial mobilization, and you, we talk a lot about how in the cold war, you had got rid of these. post Cold War. You got rid of these stockpiles, defense industry consolidated, there was the sense that you didn't need the big military in the same way.

But now I think we've entered a new period where it's not just Great power competition, but where the U. S. has to acknowledge that we could be fighting on many fronts and you need to have the [00:47:00] capability to do 

Ryan Kellogg: that. Yeah, no, yeah, definitely. And we haven't talked about this, but then it's, it's the ability.

For the U. S. to, to react and just the political dysfunction. Yeah, we talked about Israel, but then look at our own house. 

Anita Kellogg: Well, we can't even like give them aid that we promised. I mean, we keep telling them we're going to, but it has to be passed by the House. We don't have a leader of the House of Representatives for like two weeks or something.

And we may, there's 

Ryan Kellogg: no, seem particularly [00:47:30] close to getting there. Either, with Steve Scalise, who seemed like the best path and definitely would be both pro Israel, pro Ukraine, and passing funding. Seemed to have a majority, but then, I think people, especially on the UltraMAGA side, backed out. Now you have Jim Jordan, which frankly has zero chance of becoming Speaker.

So then, there's no obvious candidate at this point. 

Anita Kellogg: Finding everything with one hand tied behind. We don't have [00:48:00] functioning government. You don't have a functioning government when one branch of the government isn't working. You have to have all the branches working. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah, yeah, especially in a moment of crisis like this.

Our 

Anita Kellogg: ability to respond has been hampered by the fact that we don't have a Congress right now. 

Ryan Kellogg: Obviously, we'll be keeping a extremely close eye on this. It seems like the the ground invasion of northern Gaza is imminent. [00:48:30] I think the best that you can hope for is that Israel can accomplish its strategic goals in a quick, in a quick way and sufficiently decapitate Hamas and neutralize it and pull out as quickly as possible before this really Spirals out of control in terms of the, the humanitarian components of it.

Anita Kellogg: Absolutely. Well, that brings us to the end of this [00:49:00] episode of Kellogg's Global Politics. You can visit our website at www.kelloggsglobalpolitics. com and follow us on Twitter, also known as X @GlobalKellogg and me, @arkellogg. 

Ryan Kellogg: You can also reach us by email. So, anita@kelloggsglobalpolitics. com and myself, ryan@kelloggsglobalpolitics.com. As always, please see the show notes for the articles we discussed in this episode. If you like this show, please take the time, tell your friends, share it on your social sites. It's a simple, quick, and free way to support the show. [00:49:30] Thanks, everyone.

Anita Kellogg: Thanks.