Kellogg's Global Politics

Bonus: US Capture of Maduro and the Emerging Donroe Doctrine

• Anita Kellogg

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On Saturday, the U.S. announced that it had captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, who, along with his wife, arrived in New York a few hours later to be tried on drug trafficking charges. 


Then, President Trump said that the U.S. would be running Venezuela in the near term. So what does this all mean? We cover the latest on this stunning development and what is likely to happen over the next few days and weeks.



Topics Discussed in this Episode

  • US Military Capture of Maduro on January 3rd
  • Trump Press Conference and who will run Venezuela
  • Implications for Russia and China


Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode


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Anita Kellogg: [00:00:00] Welcome to Kellogg's Global Politics. I'm Anita, and I'm here with my co-host Ryan. 

Ryan Kellogg: Thanks. Glad to be here. 

Anita Kellogg: Yesterday the US announced that he had captured Venezuelan leader, Nicholas Maduro, who along with his wife, arrived in New York a few hours later to be tried on drug trafficking charges. Then President Trump said that the US would be running Venezuela in the near term.

So what does this all mean? We cover the latest on the stunning development and what is likely to happen over the next few days and weeks. So I was wrong. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yes, you were. 

Anita Kellogg: Again, no one should ever take prediction advice from me. I am notoriously bad at it, but I didn't think that there would be a US ground operation in any way in Venezuela, and I turned out, yeah, I mean, I did give it like.

A 40 to 50% chance it could happen. But go back and listen to the episode. You always gimme that look. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah. So I, uh, yeah, I can't remember the condition, but you were highly [00:01:00] skeptical of the idea of a Special forces operation taking out, that's kind of what I. And vision was him just being killed. I did not envision him being arrested.

Anita Kellogg: At least I was right about that. You can't just go around killing leaders of other countries, 

Ryan Kellogg: I think, well, I think it's because he did willingly surrender at the end of the day, apparently, while getting into a safe room. 

Anita Kellogg: Well, he didn't get in there. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. He was trying to get into a safe room.

Yeah. Not that would've helped, based on the account by, um, raising ca Yeah, that's his nickname. The general that Oh yeah. Of the press conference that was given by Trump and the, uh, cabinet members. I thought General Raisin canes. Detail was the, by far, the most informative and, and definitely kind of the most, uh, vivid in terms of the picture and details of the military operation, which itself was.

Stunning, you know, in [00:02:00] terms of its absolutely complexity and, and its success to carry out that with the only, I mean, it sounded like maybe a handful of US injuries, but no casualties. And to have a operation that's successful that you can go into another nation's capital go to the presidential palace, neutralize.

Significant number of, uh, security that would've been in place and then successfully bring back, said President and the First Lady, uh, onto a military vessel for prosecution in New York. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah, I think it's making other countries in Latin America pretty nervous that the US could just go and do this successfully.

And the question of whether Trump, how restrained Trump feels like. Dealing with other countries. I mean, we both have talked about how Cuba is probably next on the list if you do the same thing in Cuba. I mean, I think countries start to be, is [00:03:00] the US just going to take out leaders that it doesn't like?

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Which would be a throwback to the 1960s and seventies. Um, well, we did it more ly. We did it via proxies, and it was more the, the CIA. But I, I do find it interesting that. Uh, you know, the CIA was given kind of free reign beginning last summer. Mm-hmm. Um, and it seems like, I mean, it, it was hard to tell from the details of, of the press conference.

'cause my, my first thought was like, well, they must have encountered no resistance. I mean, this was, this went so smoothly. But no, they, it seemed like they encountered significant resistance. They knocked out, quite a few, um. Both communication networks, I think electrical networks, uh, the air to surface missiles in order to allow the chinooks, which had the, uh, the special forces of the delta force to fly inland far enough without, without any issues.

So, yeah, that didn't, that part didn't kind of, uh, it, it seemed like, yeah, there [00:04:00] was, was resistance, but it was neutralized pretty effectively. 

Anita Kellogg: It was a very impressive military operation, no doubt. 

Ryan Kellogg: No, I think it's, it's up there with what Israel pulled off against Iran and Hezbollah last year in terms of the complexity and amount of coordination.

Anita Kellogg: One thing that really surprised me even more than this operation is listening to Trump's press conference when he said that we are going to be running. Venezuela in the near term. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, it was surprising. But it was sort of like, when he first said it, it was like, okay, okay, this is just Trump.

Trump's like going off. He's doing the weave. Uh, 'cause he was weaving in all sorts of, of bs. He is talking about crime stats in New Orleans, DC has no crime now, which I'm, we, we appreciate, I mean, yeah, we live here. Uh, there's apparently no crime anymore. But in that, yeah. But he kept repeating this idea that.

We were gonna run the country, which really runs [00:05:00] counter to what we thought MAGA was kind of all about, about ending all sort of foreign interventions and nation building and all that stuff. 

Anita Kellogg: So I think everybody was taken aback by that and has been speculating on what that actually means and what it seems to mean is different things to different people.

So Marco Rubio, one of the people who's supposed to be running the nation, said on talk shows this morning that he's not directly running the country, but using the leverage of the oil blockade. To get Venezuela to do what the US wants, which is pretty big difference from what Trump said. 

Ryan Kellogg: Y Yeah. Yeah. And that, that seems to be more in line with you know, the sort of footprint that they wanna put down.

So, yeah. One of the, the interesting things that trump in terms of like talking about. Who the US would work with as a proxy. One of the people that [00:06:00] he immediately ruled out was Maria Machado, who was the Nobel Prize winner and democratic leader in exile for Venezuela. Uh, there was no mentioning of the actual proxy for her political party that won the election in 2024, the one that that Maduro.

Kind of blatantly ignored the results and, and stole the election. Ed Mundo Gonzalez, uh, there's no mentioning of him now. They did mention the vice president who under the current Venezuelan constitution is. Currently in power. And I know, you know, when this operation first happened, there were some rumors that she had fled to Russia, but that's not the case.

She, she did appear on television that day and today, 'cause we're recording this on Sunday, January 4th has been very defiant of the US. Now, during the press conference yesterday, Trump said, oh, Rubio had this conversation. With Del [00:07:00] c Rodriguez mm-hmm. Who is Maduro's vice president and said they were working out kind of an arrangement.

So it was very, it was left very much kind of like open, who the US would potentially work with. But the main message was that Trump gave at the time was that, yeah, we're gonna run this until a certain transition like occurs. Very vague. Very vague. 

Anita Kellogg: This really contrasts to Noriega who. The administration keeps saying, oh, we did this invasion to get Noriega on drug charges.

This is just the same thing. But what is interesting there is the elected leader who had lost to Noriega, or hadn't really lost, but was sort of this situation one, but Noriega didn't acknowledge it, uh, was installed by pretty much right afterwards. 

Ryan Kellogg: Mm-hmm. 

Anita Kellogg: The US supported the person who'd won the Democratic election.

And installed him. [00:08:00] 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: Whereas we are not supporting the person who won the Democratic election. 

Ryan Kellogg: Because we also don't have physical control like we did with panel. I mean, this was an invasion of I, I think like 10,000 troops that surrounded the presidential palace for Noriega, and it was a siege of.

They're blasting music and kind of harassing him and eventually gave up. Um, but yeah, there was physical control. The country's 3 million total population versus Venezuela, which is 30 million. So 10 times bigger. 

Anita Kellogg: But also we could say, we could at least say we support the rightful president of Venezuela.

Yeah. 

Ryan Kellogg: And that's kind of. What you would expect. But it was, it was interesting the way Trump phrased it around Machado basically saying she. Was not popular enough. Right. Even though, and she didn't have like the political will to 

Anita Kellogg: this candidate. Gonzalez won 70% of the vote. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Who was never mentioned.

I mean, it was just Macha never mentioned, [00:09:00] was mentioned. Gonzalez has never mentioned at all. Rubio didn't really mention it. Yeah. So it is, it does seem odd you've had this stolen election. Which he should appreciate. Obviously the 2020 election was stolen, so Trump should sympathize and but he's not mentioned in here.

It's like part of this transition plan. We're part of the demands that the US expects him to put in place. So this kind of brings on the thought of, well, given the second part. The, in terms of what was emphasized during the news conference, which is around the oil, it was around the oil and around all the money that was gonna be made by us oil companies.

That in turn was gonna go back to the Venezuelan people, but the oil companies really would be the ones paying for all this additional infrastructure, uh, and rebuilding of Venezuela. So that was emphasized over and over again. So it makes you think that it doesn't really matter who the leader is as long as they're have control [00:10:00] on the security apparatus of the country and are willing to cut deals that are very favorable to US oil companies, essentially.

Anita Kellogg: So the conclusion would be by many, that this is all about oil. It's not about drug trafficking, it's about US oil interest. And, uh, sort of all the things they accused us of in Iraq, which was probably not true. Certainly seems to be largely true in the Venezuelan case. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, definitely. It definitely appears that way.

I mean, I think the things, 

Anita Kellogg: I mean, there's Rubio's project, I think. Yeah, I think Rubio's 

Ryan Kellogg: project is a big one, and I think the fact that. True hardcore socialist leaders in South America. It was really only Chavez and the Maduro, and then the Cuban, the communist regime in Cuba, uh, people point to Brazil, but that's a standard left to center government by European standards.

Trump 

Anita Kellogg: had some negative word, uh, [00:11:00] words about Columbia's president as well. 

Ryan Kellogg: He has. Yeah, I mean that was the other interesting thing to emerge. I mean, Cuba definitely is next on the list and he even gave Rubio extra time to talk about it, which I, you know, my comment to you is this is like Christmas day for Rubio for sure, because this is like.

All my dreams are coming true. I'm gonna, I'm gonna do what JFK and every president since then has been unable to do. I'm gonna overthrow the, uh, the communist regime in Cuba and retake it. 

Anita Kellogg: He kind of echoed those sentiments on the morning talk shows as well. Rubio in that Cuba should be very afraid.

Ryan Kellogg: Oh, yeah. Oh yeah, yeah, yeah. So I, I mean, I feel like that's. That's the reason for the targets. The other interesting, this is the, the dog that did not bark, they were smart enough not to let Steven Miller talk because anytime he's, he's kind of, you know, they take the leash off and he's allowed to go on any of the major networks.

He usually embarrasses himself because he's a very angry little man and, [00:12:00] um, but he was there. He was there of a very select elite group. So this is also about immigration and about sending back Venezuelans to their country. But it was just interesting that he was kind of there as. Kind of that, that third way and you know, Trump would allude to it, you know, mostly talking about like, oh, they maybe wanna go back and invest.

Mm-hmm. I'm sure he is even talking about people who are American citizens, but Venezuelan descent. But yeah, I just thought it was, yeah. You know, miller's there for that. The other purpose is the, um, the cleansing of a miracle, let's say. 

Anita Kellogg: Absolutely. 

Ryan Kellogg: So going back to the oil aspect I did a little bit of digging and, and I would say everything.

'cause the other, the other question is, okay, well this is being left up to the US oil companies and it's primarily Chevron and Exxon that have had like a history. Within the country of which Chevron's had the longest history. It's, it's been there [00:13:00] continuously since 1923. It was one of the only foreign companies to stay or western.

Oil operators to stay within the country after Chavez, uh, nationalized the remaining kind of oil assets. But they stuck around and have been investing in five different, uh, onshore and offshore fields during that time. What I'm always frustrated with is Venezuela is always shown as like, okay, you know, the reserves here are amazing.

The reserves technically are like 300 billion barrels. Mm-hmm. Which is more than Saudi Arabia. Mm-hmm. And, and much greater than the us But what nobody ever factors in as like, well, how. You know, one, what's the technical recoverability, you know? Using current technology, can you actually recover that oil?

And then two, can you do it economically? And that's the real problem. You know, how much of this is actually attractive to, um. Two, two investors or two US oil companies. [00:14:00] So there's one quote that came from the, the Washington Post from an energy analyst firm that said it would take 'cause right now the oil production and Venezuela has decreased from like two, 3 million barrels a day.

Which was, it kind of peaked during the early part of Chavez's. Period and has since gone into to collapse. So it's about at 900,000 barrels a day. It's actually bounced up a little bit over the past couple of years because they've, uh, Chevron's, you know, invested more. I think the Chinese have also invested more but.

The cost, uh, just to get half a million more. So let's say going from 900,000 to 1.4 million would take $10 billion and two years in order to accomplish. Mm-hmm. Which I was a little surprised, you know, one, the cost of it. And then two, the amount of time, but everything else that I'm reading is that the infrastructure, [00:15:00] this isn't like going into even like a Mexico.

Or, you know, like a US operation where they haven't, they just haven't invested in it. It's just no maintenance, very poor infrastructure. A lot of things that would have to be invested in upfront beyond the wells themselves to get them bashed on back on production. So that upfront cost, looking at it and doing like a back of an envelope calculation, not that attractive.

No. Especially at these prices. 

Anita Kellogg: So I was reading because it's. Heavier crude oil, it costs more to extract. Mm-hmm. Yeah. And so the estimate is that it has to be above $50 per barrel. Yeah. For it to be economical to get this vi Venezuelan oil. And since prices are at 50, possibly going lower, then it's not, it's difficult to make a profit with these Venezuela and extraction.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yep. Yeah, [00:16:00] so it's very little incentive compared to the alternatives that like a Chevron or Exxon would have for deploying its global capital. Yeah. This heavy crude at these prices just not at attract. Even the low hanging fruit, which this would be, you know, this first tranche, let alone get in above, it's just not attractive.

So what, so if everything is hinging on US oil companies coming in. The only other way because when I was doing my back of envelope calculation, I was using a standard, kind of international royalty mm-hmm. Where, they, um, you know, upfront the Venezuelan government would get, 25% royalty and then there would be some sort of cost recovery and then production sharing, like profit sharing after that.

So even with that, yeah, I was coming at. 60 bucks. It was fairly marginal. 

So everything hinges on this, the entire, I guess, leverage and rebuilding of Venezuela and [00:17:00] it's not attractive. What is Trump gonna do to provide that incentive then to. Chevron and Exxon to actually want to invest in Venezuela.

I think, are we gonna subsidize them to go in, but it's not gonna cost anything. That was the other thing Trump said, is this gonna cost anything? None of this 

Anita Kellogg: is gonna cost anything because we're gonna get these tremendous royalties from oil. 

Ryan Kellogg: So the only thought is that whatever these terms, they're.

Unprecedented within like international markets dealing with a national state oil company. So you have to find a partner who's willing to sell the resources of the nation at extraordinarily low price for development. Or some sort of thing. I mean, they were talking about, 'cause we talked in the, uh, the last episode, which we'll release, like right before this one.

We talked about the only 'cause Trump goes on and on about what was stolen. From Chevron historically and from Shell. And that amounts to like $10 billion [00:18:00] probably in like 20 $15. Of which did he 

Anita Kellogg: say like 60 billion or something? I thought he gave a number that was much higher. 

Ryan Kellogg: Well, I'm sure in his mind it's much higher and, but in terms of what was ruled in international courts, what they Venezuela settled on and what they were still actively making payments on, it was $10 billion.

I guess he, if you include like damages and who knows what other things he would factor in. Maybe you get to that. 60 billion, which is already pretty excessive compared to what, what was taken, I guess you could do lost production, lost sales, and then the time value of that. I don't know. So maybe there's some sort of cost damages recovery period that helps, speed up the investment.

But it's, it's definitely not a slam dunk by any means, just from a pure economics point of view is what I'm, I'm trying to say with this oil play. 

Anita Kellogg: Absolutely, and that's a problem for Venezuela whose entire economy hinges around oil and it's [00:19:00] always been struggled, had problems previously with inflation.

And this kind of led to Chavez winning in the first place because every time lower oil prices went low, the economy was very badly hurt. So without high oil prices. It's hard to see how you're gonna have this economic boom in Venezuela, especially since we're obviously taking, uh, high royalties.

Ryan Kellogg: Right. And then there's the, I mean, I guess going back, it's, I mean, who do you, who do you envision as the, as the partner that's gonna be willing to take whatever this deal is to, I mean, what will be criticized as selling your country kind of into neocolonialism? 

Anita Kellogg: I don't know. I mean, Exxon. 

Ryan Kellogg: No, no. I know.

No, I, the oil, 

Anita Kellogg: I dunno. You're well, one, 

Ryan Kellogg: one I'll say to defend the oil companies they've been trying to get away from these practices. I know that 

Anita Kellogg: Exxon seems to be the most evil [00:20:00] one's up there. 

Ryan Kellogg: This was a long, this is like two generations ago, you know, same, most of your, your textbook studies of how these companies operated environments.

Anita Kellogg: I mean, Chevon did some really bad things in Latin America, that's for sure. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, historically, yeah, I, I'm not as familiar with that. I am more familiar with Shell in Africa, but, um, I will say the companies have gone to great lengths to try to, to clean up, those sort of reputations and, and, and in their interactions with the government and with the local communities, it's not perfect by any means.

And they normally go with maybe slightly above what's required by the local laws. But still to, to go into this, which is a, feels like a very, um. It's a neo-colonial sort of arrangement, particularly if it goes well and above, beyond kind of what's normal for royalties under a mm-hmm. Uh, a joint venture like this.

Anita Kellogg: So do you mean what political [00:21:00] partner in Venezuela? Yeah. 

Ryan Kellogg: What political partner within Venezuela? 'cause obviously we're seeing the resistance from the, uh, from the vice president today. I mean, is it gonna be a general, because the generals. Hold quite a few power and it, it was kind of interesting, I was listening today to a podcast that talked about one, the number of generals 'cause there's quite a bit more compared to like the US military.

Mm-hmm. Um, despite excess complaints that we have too many generals. But, um. And all of these generals have business interest. Mm-hmm. You know, within various sectors. Basically everyone within the military, probably like 90% of the economy, you know, kind of flows through the military in some form.

So you're gonna have to get somebody that's gonna essentially agree to maintaining that. 'cause nobody's gonna agree to losing a significant part of their pie. 

Anita Kellogg: Mm-hmm. I mean, as for general, I mean, certainly part of the government. The military part of the government, the defense, uh, [00:22:00] ministers has been very, very non-cooperative.

Yeah. And he's had this stronger language than the vice president. Yeah. About not cooperating with the United States as a political leader. I think the problem is nationalism themselves more than saying, oh, we're going to give the US part of our oil wealth. So, I, I mean, personally, I think this is why they're the us.

Trump in particular is afraid to work with the democratically elected leaders because he feels like that they may be more reluctant to make sweetheart deals for US companies in Venezuela, and that he might have more leverage over the current government. I think that's at least his hope. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, it does seem like there's much more opportunity for.

Personalized deals, corruption, dealing in crypto, all that sort of stuff. If you're dealing with a autocratic military regime, which, you know, honestly, historically that's been the US' [00:23:00] reputation within Latin America during the Cold War, is to put in a right wing military dictator that's compliant, you know, compliant.

Well, not puppet per se, but. Compliant. Compliant. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. Uh, yeah, who usually did horrible things to their own people. And you know, in lieu of having a democratic government, which people had elected, but more on the socialist side, it's, it's not a very good history. Latin Americanist hate the United States because of everything US did.

It's. You can't even hardly say anything positive about the US in that group. At least has been my experience in dealing with Latin American scholars. But I think to me personally, it's just really problematic that we're not supporting the Democrat. Leaders of Venezuela. Oh, and the other thing, if we're not gonna support the Gonzalez who was elected in 2024, then we should at least be calling for an election within 30 days, [00:24:00] as in the constitution of Venezuela says.

Ryan Kellogg: That should 

Anita Kellogg: be the minimum, you know, we're doing in support of democracy. Like we're, we're taking out these, you know, we're saying how bad Maduro is. We're saying how bad Cuba is. And presumably these are in mostly because they are not democratic countries. I mean, that's part of our argument at least.

And yet we're not doing everything to bring democracy to Venezuela or encourage It's vene. It's democratic past. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah. Which, again, Trump's not big on promoting the democracy project. If we take 

Anita Kellogg: out a leader, then we should be promoting it. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, and I think what they're looking for, I mean, he did give at least lip service to the idea of.

And it was a very nation building sort of thing. It was like, it would make no sense for us to take out Maduro and then just leave it to a very similar [00:25:00] regime, you know, in terms of, and he would provide, you know, wanting to make Venezuela great again and, and provide kind of these benefits. And that was the whole idea.

The oil companies could come in, they can invest lots of money that's gonna make more oil, that's gonna increase the national revenue. Everybody will be better off because of it. But yeah, you're just not, yeah. You're not, not really seeing kind of that, that path how they would get there Exactly.

Or, or how that translates into, um, the partner that the US is envisioning if it's not a democratic partner. 

Anita Kellogg: So this is what we talked a lot about since then, but I think it's, you know, the comments by Rubio were also very informative this morning. I mean, what do we think the US is doing?

What does it mean to say that we're running Venezuela? Or if we're not running the day-to-day operations as Rubio made clear this morning, which was confusing at first, what are we doing? What [00:26:00] exactly do we want from the Venezuelan government and if the authoritarians give it to us, Maduro's successor, are we content with that to having just the successor of Maduro remain in power?

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, and it's, it's not clear 'cause, I mean, supposedly Maduro was, offer was offering very favorable terms in terms of oil concessions. So it, it seems like it's something, it is beyond just having a grab on the oil, although, that's an important component, but it doesn't seem to be enough. So it does feel like also this, this war against socialist.

Which I think is the Rubio part within it. So I don't think we can look at this as strictly a klepto. It has to be a true change within the regime. And Trump was paid the death of, of Chavista, of the, 

Anita Kellogg: yeah, but Trump Chavez system [00:27:00] talked about the vice president pretty favorably yesterday. 

Ryan Kellogg: Well, 

Anita Kellogg: I mean, he did, see, he didn't, he 

Ryan Kellogg: didn't knock her.

But he also, um. He deferred to Rubio on it as well. 

Anita Kellogg: But he had some positive things to say that he thought that basically they were gonna be willing to work with the US to give the US with what it wants

Ryan Kellogg: and 

Anita Kellogg: that Yeah, which wasn't 

Ryan Kellogg: completely clear beyond what, above and beyond what Maduro is offering is the US want. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah, I mean, I think that is exactly the question. What do we want, what does the government of Venezuela have to do to stay in power? I mean, he certainly threatened a second strike, and it seems to me that's part of the leverage over the current government to give us what we want or will take you out.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah. But nothing 

Anita Kellogg: in what he said said, oh, we're gonna encourage [00:28:00] democracy. 

Ryan Kellogg: No, there's nothing in there. 'cause no elections are mentioned. And again, he dismissed the one, uh, well, one didn't mention the actual president elect. And then yeah, dismissed, um, Machado completely. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. So I think that's the problem.

I think the other thing, the other question that comes to my mind is. Is Trump in love with military adventurism now? I mean, here's somebody who I, I mean, one of the things that surprised me about Venezuela was that in his first term, Trump seemed very unwilling to get the military too involved in too involved in anything, right?

He wanted to keep us outta conflicts as much as possible, and. I think I expected that to continue and I think some, to some extent you keep having like the success of Iran and now [00:29:00] Venezuela is making him think a lot more positively about military action. And even in his mind, you know, regime change or nation building, like running a country.

I'm not sure when he said run the country, he was thinking in the same terms. Rubio said, I mean, I think. He actually meant something more dramatic that we would be running more the day-to-day operations where I think Rubio this morning was quick to kind of dial that back. I don't think there's reason to believe that Rubio and Hegseth had not heard that they were in charge of running Venezuela before Trump had actually announced that.

But I think there's a danger, danger. You know, especially we're talking about Cuba being next. Yeah. That Trump sees the success of the military and decides that maybe he does wanna get more involved in regime change and nation building. 

Ryan Kellogg: I don't, I think he has no interest in the, the actual hard work and detail of [00:30:00] nation building.

Anita Kellogg: He doesn't have to do that. He has people who work for, to do that. I don't. 

Ryan Kellogg: Well, as long as it doesn't involve a significant number of, of troops. US presence on the ground for long-term, period. I think what he, he likes and all his military interventions have been like this, uh, it's the use of, of special forces or, you know, in the case of Iran, you know, a quick bombing campaign that are very quick minimum exposure, you know, to the loss of life and then their one and done sort of deals.

We saw that with like soleimani. As well with that strike. But anything, any commitment beyond that. I don't see any appetite for, he's able to get away with this. 'cause this is like a movie playing out. I mean, he even mentioned it. Yeah. When he comes in, he's like, you know, I saw things, you know, in this operation.

It was like watching a TV show, you know, it was amazing. You guys will never get to see it, but it was amazing. Um, so, and [00:31:00] again, this guy, he is, he's reality tv. He views things, you know, through that, that lens. And if he has this tool, which, to be fair, this has been a tool that US presidents have increasingly relied on this idea of using the Navy seals and Delta forces, these special ops for these attacks.

And they're being used, I mean, these are the most televised ones. Mm-hmm. These forces get used all the time. Um, because they have almost zero oversight. And zero accountability because a lot of these are classified missions. Even if casualties do occur you know, it's never, it's never publicized.

And obviously, you know, this, this operation was a great success, but there were a million things that could have gone wrong. I mean, this could have been a disaster. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. But it wasn't. And so hear me out previously before Iraq. The US had started having success in these short operations, whether they were bombing [00:32:00] or against Saddam, uh, in Kuwait.

And suddenly all this like post Cold War hesitation, post-Vietnam hesitation to use armed forces began to drain away because US military missions seemed overwhelmingly successful. And so we became more willing to use our military. To support things like regime change. Could this go to Trump's head?

Ryan Kellogg: No, because I think he still has a, such, a huge part of his base because, I mean, remember the pollings before this in terms of like going to war with Venezuela or the, any sort of operation, it was like at 25%. 

Anita Kellogg: But it did not stop him from saying, we are gonna run Venezuela. So he is not, 

Ryan Kellogg: he likes the idea.

He said, we're gonna like turn Gaza into a freaking casino resort area. That's it's bullshit. He's not, that's, he's not, we're not gonna run Venezuela. 

Anita Kellogg: But [00:33:00] he and his own mind think, thinks that that's a worthy endeavor. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, he likes the idea because he envisions the oil companies instantly being able to generate huge amounts of cash.

It's gonna pay for everything, and I'm sure he is fuzzy on the proxies or what it actually means to run a country. Although, half of this is, is, you know, 'cause he, he got traction initially because of his rightful skepticism around Iraq and what a, the giant disaster that was trying to run that country.

Anita Kellogg: I agree that's, that's sort of where he first built up his base and that his base is not thrilled with these things, but I think Right. I think some of 

Ryan Kellogg: it's So you think he is just like the hell with the base? I mean, I only if he's gonna personally make money from this. But I don't see him personally making a huge amount.

Is he gonna make more than he's made in? 'cause I mean, that's the other thing is wall Street Journal came out with an article showing his net worth increase just over [00:34:00] the last year. Yeah. He was like around like 2 billion before. He's now like 6 billion. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. Oh, the crypto deals. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. So I mean, is it gonna get rich off of Vene more red, get more, 

Anita Kellogg: I don't know.

But I think he's outside 

Ryan Kellogg: his space. He's not a big energy guy. He's real estate and crypto guy. 

Anita Kellogg: There's real estate deals to be made in Venezuela too. There are. 

Ryan Kellogg: That's Cuba. That's the big play. Yeah, that's Venezuela is 

Anita Kellogg: beautiful. Ocean front property too. Cuba's closer. 

Ryan Kellogg: And it's all ocean front property.

Anita Kellogg: I just think Trump is kind of enchanted by all this internationalism that he's been, you know, engaged in, you know, wanting to be the peace person and now, wanting to control Venezuela. And you got the 

Ryan Kellogg: FIFA Peace Prize, I mean, yes. Yeah. And he has the World Cup coming. My 

Anita Kellogg: favorite tweet was this, how this, uh, undermines that peace prize.

I just think he's. I think he's not really thinking about running for election again because he can't, [00:35:00] and so he's thinking of his legacy and he sees it in terms of these international conflicts, whether he's solving them or using dramatic military power. I think this is in his head 

Ryan Kellogg: maybe. I mean, yeah, I could see that.

Yeah. This is, which kind of fits with the personality that he, he gives, zero dams about the party, right? About Republican Party. Why would you worry about, 'cause this will tank them. Yeah, for sure. 'cause this, I mean, 'cause again, they were. The losses in 2025 from the local and state elections. It was all because it was seen, he was, wasn't focused on affordability.

Mm-hmm. And they had maybe one week after these election results where his advisors like guilted him into focusing on affordability. And he did it so reluctantly. But now I, I kind of get what you're saying 'cause he gets the love and, and. Naturally, this is where the president, a president is least constrained.

Mm-hmm. Is around foreign [00:36:00] policy. That's what we've always said. We've always been like, you should vote based on foreign policy, because that's where the president has power. Trump's kind of expanded that power domestically, but even in this expanded power domestically, he still has all these, these, the pains of the federalist system, so individual states, and then the pains of the judicial system.

Courts still blocking so many of his actions, but foreign policy. It was like wide open. So I mm-hmm. I get what you're saying. So you think he's fallen in love with he's little bit in love with the US foreign policy mm-hmm. And his ability to wield the might of the American military to, uh, to do what he wants.

Anita Kellogg: I absolutely think so. 

Ryan Kellogg: Okay. So that raises the, maybe the final question is, um, you know, what are the implications outside of Venezuela? You know, both for. I mean, we talked about Cuba. Apparently Stephen Miller's wife tweeted a picture of Greenland. Oh, it had a big [00:37:00] American flag on it. Uh, that was not well received by Denmark or Greenland.

No. So is, is that next, um, should we expect, you know, further pressure on, on the kind of the countries that emerged as the initial focus of MAGA imperialism? 

Anita Kellogg: That is a good follow up question. I wanna say no, that we're not gonna be sending the military, although to take Greenland, although if it was just Trump, up to Trump and there was like no.

No handlers at all. Yeah. I'm not so sure that he wouldn't, if he was like a dictatorship or something, that he wouldn't send the military. It's a 

Ryan Kellogg: big di Yeah. 'cause I mean, at least here, they're able to have the, the facade of the 2020 Southern District of New York warrant around drug charges for this intervention with Maduro, and then the precedents with Noriega Greenland.

A democratic nation. Yeah. Is just a [00:38:00] naked, even more naked power grab. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. No, I don't I saw that happening, that those exchanges happening, and I think Trump would like for that to happen, but I don't see any realistic chances. The next operation's definitely Cuba, we don't have drug charges against Cuba.

I think they're 

Ryan Kellogg: gonna link it to somehow because Cuba. Is so embedded within Venezuela that they're somehow gonna tie somebody in Cuba to the drug related activities and then charge, uh, the leader. Yeah. They don't have to have, it's, that's, they barely need a reason, but they'll come up with some sort of legal Yeah.

Facade for, I know you're 

Anita Kellogg: right. Because the whole thing at Cuba is we know they're gonna take Cuba out, but right now they don't have any legal justification. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yep. Yep. Okay. Final, final question. What's this mean for, how has Russia and China received this message of what just [00:39:00] happened? 

Anita Kellogg: I think from China's perspective, there's two ways of looking at this.

On one hand that. Trump doesn't seem that constrained or bothered by using military force and American military might is still really powerful. On the other hand, he could foc, they could be focusing on the donna, what did he call it? Not the mono doctrine, but the, 

Ryan Kellogg: the Don Row Doctor. Don 

Anita Kellogg: Row doctor. Okay.

And just see that. The US is willing to militarily engage in Latin America, but that means they're less likely to engage in Asia. So I I, people have really focused on the latter interpretation. Mm-hmm. But if I was China, I would think about the first interpretation too, that he's not hesitant to use the military.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. But it's a big difference doing an operation that's pretty close to the [00:40:00] US versus. That sort of operation different anywhere near China. Well, we're not gonna, or Taiwan do 

Anita Kellogg: that sort of operation, but I think if I was China thinking about how far I wanna push things with Taiwan, that I might not wanna count out that Trump would use the American military 

Ryan Kellogg: maybe.

I don't, I mean, I think it's an interesting data point and I think the most impressive thing around it and the thing that the Chinese military has yet to prove is the coordination. And again, that's something that the, uh, general, I keep calling Raising and Cane, but I just had his nickname.

'cause I dunno, I'm not gonna look up. It's Dean Kane, general Kane, Dean Kane, uh, general Kane's breakdown was just the. Yeah. That level of coordination with all the branches of the military. Mm-hmm. With, uh, with the CIA you know, with the, uh, space force, you know, around n the cyber [00:41:00] intelligence, NSA. Is something China has yet to prove to, to, 'cause it does take that level mm-hmm.

Of extraordinary coordination and data, you know, moving seamlessly mm-hmm. And perfect execution for mm-hmm. That sort of operation. And, and China would have to do something similar to be successful within Taiwan. So does it question their own ability to be able to pull something off? If China's, yeah.

China. China. What China lacks that the US has always had, maybe with Latin America. He kind of mentioned like how us build its confidence back up after Vietnam. Mm-hmm. Uh, by doing these small little operations, but not, but China doesn't have like a practice place. Right. It doesn't, they couldn't do like a border skirmish with Vietnam.

Again, it'd be 'cause taking on Vietnam is a major military. You have a lot of interest in Vietnam too. Yeah. They aren't gonna go, they obviously have border issues with India, border issues with Russia, but [00:42:00] that's not the sort of proxy to go after. No. So they would have to go into Taiwan carrying out an operation, 10 times more complicated than kind of what the US just executed and do it.

Pretty close to perfectly. So now I'm talking myself out of like, what China would wanna take this risk. I know because I'm like, I know you're telling me 

Anita Kellogg: China's gonna take this as an obvious sign to attack Taiwan in 2027. I don't think so. I think to what you're saying, the number one advantage the US has is its experience in operations that require this level of coordination.

Interop. Yeah. Yeah. China has never, let's, that's just in general kind of a struggle for China and they never have an opportunity to, like you said, do like practice runs or, or anything. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Beyond kind of the drills that they just conducted. So the 

Anita Kellogg: US has some disadvantages against China, just the long distance.

And maybe. Our exquisite systems being [00:43:00] fewer. Then there are more commercial lower price sort of drones and things. But our biggest is the tyranny of distance and our maybe our lack of an industrial base that can quickly make more weapons. But we, by far, I think it's more important than the technology that we have is our experience that just can't be replicated in any other way.

In 

Ryan Kellogg: any sort of like drill, 

Anita Kellogg: like I said, if I was trying to, I see like what you were telling me yesterday that all this we're pulling, like we had pulled TR troops from the Asia Pacific area Middle East to carry out these operations. But on one hand, yeah, it shows we're serious about our Don Road doctrine, but it also I think spells that Trump is not afraid to use military force.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. And I think the other interesting, both with Russia and China, and we saw this in Iran as well, they're not willing to stick their necks out for their proxies. [00:44:00] Yeah. These are not like true allies in any sense. Yeah. I mean, they're not willing to take any risk around us. So for 

Anita Kellogg: Russia, their perspective, it can't be great that Venezuela's outta play, particularly Cuba, but it won't change their policy in any way.

I don't see it just, um. Yeah. Just allies that they have elsewhere in the world, it, it decreases those. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. And they were already such a shrunken for, I mean, it's only Putin where they've gotten in a, some small clawing back of kind of the Soviet sphere of influence. Mm-hmm. But. And they were able to get some of Africa back.

Mm-hmm. But they, they in turn lost the Middle East. I mean, their mm-hmm. Their foothold within the Middle East is gone. And potentially, you know, whatever sort of presence in South American, Latin America is also gone. But yeah, I always find it interesting that. For these talks of, um, you know, multipolar [00:45:00] world soviet Union intervened and backed its proxies during the Cold War. Mm-hmm. Without a doubt. I mean, that's why we led to the Korea war, into, um, yeah. Into Vietnam. But we don't see that here. 

Anita Kellogg: It's true. That's a good thing. I think 

Ryan Kellogg: so. Are we truly in a multipolar world or is it still America's?

Anita Kellogg: I've never argued that we're truly in a multipolar world. 

Ryan Kellogg: A lot of people do. 

Anita Kellogg: I know people do, but going back to my definition of a superpower, which you disagreed with, it's the ability to, seriously influence beyond your own region, regional borders. And I think China's influence is still most pronounced in regional borders.

There's this it's hard to say because economically they're very powerful in, in Africa and Latin America. But if you're talking about hard power, and I'm not saying that's the only way to talk about it, but if you are talking about it in hard power, [00:46:00] then China is very constrained to the Asian region.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. And maybe, you know that, just talk about the definition of superpower. Maybe that is a good, like you willingness to back proxies and allies outside your region. Mm-hmm. As a sign of being a superpower, of which then only two, only the Soviet Union us have ever been. 

Anita Kellogg: I think there's a lot of people that would argue that Yes, 

Ryan Kellogg: superpowers.

Yeah. So until China's willing to commit hard power 

Anita Kellogg: outside 

Ryan Kellogg: of Asia, outside of Asia, or even inside of Asia to its allies. Well against the United States. Yeah. And its proxies then. It's not truly a superpower, 

Anita Kellogg: I guess. I mean, it uses its military in the South China Sea to, to stir up trouble and you know, drills along Taiwan and, and sort of threatening those areas.

But it's certainly no military presence [00:47:00] outside of that area. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. 'cause it abandoned, I mean, Iran particularly. Seems to be on the verge of something major as well, um, given the, the, the protest. Mm-hmm. Um, but yeah, I mean, China and Russia are, are missing in action for both of those.

Absolutely. 

Anita Kellogg: And I mean, China had had bought a lot in Venezuela. It didn't get anything out of it, but it had bought a lot in Venezuela. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Oh. I think there's a significant amount of debt owed to China. Mm-hmm. By Venezuela 

Anita Kellogg: Significant. 

Ryan Kellogg: Uh, I'm thinking that's not getting paid now. 

Anita Kellogg: No, I think not. I mean, so I guess in my conclusion I would say, yay, Maduro's out.

That's a positive thing. Yay. American military. But the two things, I have a caution. One, yay Maduro. But that should come with supporting the democratic leaders of Venezuela. That's important to me. If we're trying to justify our actions. The fact that we're [00:48:00] not doing that is, is troubling and it's always gonna be, especially if we do Cuba, which we both think will happen.

It's a little troubling to just have us then come in and take out whatever leaders it doesn't like. I think that's a, that's not a good trend. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah. It's not a good trend. I mean, I think it, it creates the conditions of, nations that are capable of acquiring, rebuilding their own nuclear weapon, even more encouraged to do so.

Absolutely. U US does not pull these things off with ones with, uh, nuclear arms. 

Anita Kellogg: Absolutely.

Well, you have anything else? 

Ryan Kellogg: No, I think that's good. 

Anita Kellogg: All right. Well that brings us to the end of this special bonus episode of Kellogg's Global Politics. You can visit our website at www kellogg's global politics.com and follow us on X at Global Kellogg or me at ar Kellogg. 

Ryan Kellogg: You can also reach us by [00:49:00] email Anita at kellogg's global politics.com and Ryan at kellogg's global politics.com.

As always, please see the show notes for the articles we did mention in the episode. Thanks. Thanks. Bye bye.